The Yankees find themselves in an intriguing position this offseason. While their roster already looks solid, there’s a lingering feeling that they’re one move away from truly solidifying their infield and taking a championship leap. That missing piece could very well be Alex Bregman, the All-Star third baseman who remains one of the biggest names available. However, navigating the financial waters to sign Bregman won’t be easy, especially with the Yankees already above the $301 million luxury tax threshold.
Another critical factor is that the Astros hit Bregman with the qualifying offer in November, meaning the Yankees would have to cough up more draft capital to acquire him. That’s likely a major roadblock in their decision.
Navigating the Luxury Tax Landscape
The Yankees currently sit at an estimated $303.2 million in luxury tax payroll, exceeding the fourth-tier threshold by a slim margin. General manager Brian Cashman has made it clear the team wants to remain financially prudent, but they also understand the importance of adding a player of Bregman’s caliber.
A significant step toward making this happen would involve offloading Marcus Stroman and his $18.5 million salary. If the Yankees can clear $10 million of that through a trade, they could open up the flexibility needed to make a competitive offer for Bregman.
Even with a short-term deal, Bregman’s contract would likely command at least $25 million annually. However, the Yankees could get creative with the structure, similar to how they approached Max Fried’s contract. Fried, signed earlier this offseason, will average $27.25 million annually but counts just $14.5 million against the luxury tax in 2025 and 2026. If the Yankees offer Bregman a backloaded deal, they could fit him under their financial constraints for now while banking on future cap space to absorb the larger payments.
Future Financial Flexibility Could Be Key
Looking ahead to 2026, the Yankees will have plenty of financial breathing room. Cody Bellinger may opt out of his deal, Paul Goldschmidt’s $12.5 million contract will be off the books, and the combined $15 million in luxury tax hits from Aaron Hicks and Anthony Rizzo will also be freed up. This future flexibility could allow the Yankees to make a competitive offer to Bregman now, even if it means pushing some financial commitments into later years.
That said, Bregman may not be keen on deferring money if he’s already accepting a shorter-term deal. To entice him, the Yankees might need to offer a substantial salary increase in 2026, which could limit their ability to pursue other big names, like Kyle Tucker, in free agency. It’s a balancing act that Cashman and ownership must weigh carefully.
A Risk Worth Taking?
At 30 years old, Bregman remains an elite player, but there are questions about how his performance might age. In 2024, he posted a .260/.315/.453 slash line with 26 home runs and 75 RBIs over 145 games. While his 118 wRC+ and 4.1 WAR still signal a high level of production, there are signs of potential decline. His strikeout rate remains elite at 13.6%, but his walk rate dropped to 6.9%, nearly half of his 2023 mark. These metrics suggest a slightly less disciplined approach at the plate, raising some concerns.
Defensively, however, Bregman remains one of the best third basemen in baseball. Over 1,234.2 innings at the hot corner in 2024, he posted a .972 fielding percentage, with six defensive runs saved and six outs above average. His glove is still a game-changer, and his versatility has even opened the door for a potential move to second base if needed. For the Yankees, who value run prevention and defensive excellence, Bregman could be the missing link.
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The Final Puzzle Piece?
With Gleyber Torres departing for Detroit and Jazz Chisholm’s versatility allowing him to play either second or third base, the Yankees have the flexibility to add Bregman without disrupting their current roster. His combination of power, plate discipline, and elite defense could make him the perfect fit for a team with championship aspirations.
Landing Bregman would require the Yankees to step out of their financial comfort zone, but if they truly believe in their 2025 roster, this is the type of win-now move that could pay massive dividends. Cashman and company have a decision to make, and it might be one that shapes the Yankees’ fate for years to come.