Did the Yankees make the right decision dropping $22 million Trent Grisham?

One of the more interesting decisions the Yankees made this offseason was extending the qualifying offer to Trent Grisham. They weren’t sure if he would actually pick up the option, but when he accepted it, the Yankees were immediately on the hook for $22 million in guaranteed salary. With the outfield market thin this offseason, the Yankees walked away with the top two players in Grisham and Cody Bellinger, which ultimately was just retaining what they already had.

The Yankees feel strong about their offense, which was the best in baseball in 2025, so they saw no reason to blow things up. In fact, they believe that Grisham has made changes that will help him remain more consistent, as Brian Cashman mentioned a few weeks ago. However, Grisham represents their primary leadoff man, a player who will see more strikes and hit more home runs, even if they’re solo shots, because of Aaron Judge batting right behind him.

From Liability to Bargain

“At this point, that $22 million looks like a bargain, the way the free-agent market got away from everybody,” Cashman said recently on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio, per MLB.com. “We’re really happy that he chose to stay with us. Hopefully, he can replicate what he did last year.”

When the Yankees extended the qualifying offer in November, Cashman described it as a “50-50” call. The organization wasn’t sure which way Grisham would lean. After posting a .190 batting average in 2024 and earning just $5 million, the jump to $22 million represents a massive pay raise in 2026. Many expected Grisham to test free agency and seek a multi-year deal after his breakout 2025 campaign.

Instead, Grisham accepted the one-year deal, giving the Yankees stability in center field and flexibility to pursue other offseason targets. With pitchers like Kyle Tucker commanding four-year, $240 million contracts and Bellinger ultimately re-signing for five years and $162.5 million, the $22 million for Grisham suddenly looked reasonable in context.

Career Trajectory: From Bust to Breakout

Grisham’s 2025 performance represents the culmination of years spent below the Mendoza Line. His .184 average in 2022 was the lowest in baseball among qualified hitters. The .198 mark in 2023 wasn’t much better. Even after arriving in New York via the Juan Soto trade, Grisham struggled to find consistent at-bats in 2024, hitting just .190 across 76 games.

Then everything clicked in 2025. Grisham’s .235/.348/.464 slash line represents career highs across the board. His 34 home runs doubled his previous career best (17 in 2022). The 87 RBIs, 143 games played, and .811 OPS all shattered his previous marks. Most importantly, his 129 wRC+ means he was 29% better than the average MLB hitter, a far cry from the sub-90 marks he posted with San Diego.

“I like when I can get my mind to this level,” Grisham told reporters during the season. “It’s a lot of fun to just experience that, learn from that and produce that on a nightly basis. It’s what I’ve always dreamed about and thought I was capable of. To do it is a whole another thing, but it doesn’t surprise me.”

Leadoff Excellence and Judge Protection

Grisham’s value extended beyond raw production. In 406 plate appearances batting first in the order, he posted a .202 average with 23 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a .740 OPS. While the batting average remained modest, the power production from the leadoff spot was exceptional. Six of his leadoff home runs ranked fifth-most in the majors, per MLB.com.

More importantly, 18 of his 26 home runs through August either tied the game or gave the Yankees the lead, demonstrating his ability to deliver in high-leverage situations. Hitting in front of Aaron Judge meant Grisham saw better pitches to hit, as opposing pitchers couldn’t afford to walk him and face the reigning MVP with runners on base.

“I think I feel pretty comfortable [leading off],” Grisham told MLB.com in August. “I’ve done it a lot in my life. Being the first guy they send out is fun. We have a really good offense, and being the first guy we send up means a lot.”

His Baseball Savant profile validates the breakout. The 91st percentile xwOBA (.370) and 91st percentile xSLG (.498) suggest his power surge was legitimate, not luck. His 89th percentile barrel rate (14.2%) and 99th percentile chase rate (17.3%) demonstrate improved plate discipline and contact quality. The 96th percentile walk rate (14.1%) shows he’s forcing pitchers to attack the zone rather than nibbling around the edges.

The Hamstring Issue and Defensive Concerns

The reality is simple: Grisham was dealing with hamstring issues during the second half of the season, which hurt his defensive measurements, which is why the Yankees feel he’ll bounce back in a more positive way. Manager Aaron Boone acknowledged the injury’s impact on Grisham’s Gold Glove-caliber defense.

“I think overall, you still watch him play the position and you’re like, ‘Oh, that’s a real center fielder,'” Boone said, per MLB.com. “It’s not unrealistic that he gets back to being more in line with that Gold Glove-caliber guy with better health.”

Grisham’s 8th percentile baserunning run value and 29th percentile fielding run value in 2025 were well below his usual standards. As a two-time Gold Glove winner (2020, 2022), Grisham built his reputation on elite defense and baserunning. The Yankees believe a healthy offseason will restore those abilities while maintaining his offensive gains.

Continuity and Championship Aspirations

Grisham has also pushed back against criticism that the Yankees are simply running it back after losing in the Division Series. “It’s rare in this business to be able to almost have almost the same team,” Grisham told NJ.com’s Randy Miller. “I think the value in that is underlooked. We built so much camaraderie last year as a team. I think that goes a long way in winning championships. And I think that we’re very talented.”

If he can maintain his offensive profile and recover some lost production on the defensive side, he has the makings of a player that’s well worth the expense. Cashman’s confidence isn’t blind optimism. “What he did last year to unlock and take it to another level was spectacular and all the information that we buy into leads us to believe clearly that by offering him the qualifying offer that [2025] was real, it is sustainable,” Cashman said on MLB Network Radio.

The Yankees bet $22 million that Grisham’s breakout was real, not a mirage. The advanced metrics, the improved approach, and the power surge all suggest they made the right call. In a market where outfielders commanded massive contracts, keeping Grisham at $22 million looks like one of the smarter moves of the offseason.