The New York Mets, despite underachieving to a 26-34 record in the condensed 2020 season, have one of the most talented rosters in the major leagues. Yes, they have a couple of needs here or there, but as it is, the existing core could compete for a playoff spot and, with a high-profile addition or two, making a deep postseason run isn’t out of the question.
According to projection system ZiPS, created by FanGraphs’ writer Dan Szymborski, there is a lot to like about the 2021 New York Mets. The ZiPS system has been published for nine consecutive years.
For starters, ZiPS sees Jacob deGrom, once again, as one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a 12-6 record, a 2.85 ERA, and a 2.96 FIP in 28 starts. The system projects 40 walks and 217 strikeoutsin 176.7 innings for the Mets’ ace.
ZiPS is projecting a Mets’ injured starter, Noah Syndergaard, to have a good comeback season. In 126.7 innings, he has a 3.69 ERA attached to him, as well as a 3.68 FIP, 31 walks, and 125 strikeouts.
The rest of the rotation pieces, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson, are projected to have 3.88 and 4.14 ERA, respectively.
The Mets projections are encouraging
About the group as a whole, Szymborski wrote that “after deGrom, there’s a great deal of upside. The Mets were fortunate to get Marcus Stroman back with a qualifying offer; the calf injury that helped cost him 2020 isn’t expected to be a problem next year. Noah Syndergaard’s injury was far more serious, of course, but it’s much better for 2021 that he got his Tommy John surgery in March rather than the Mets playing ‘wait-and-see’ until late summer. David Peterson looked solid in stretches in 2020 and ZiPS isn’t banking on a repeat of his higher-than-expected walk rate.”
As for hitters, the Mets could get, per ZiPS, a rebound season from Pete Alonso, with a .246/.339/.524 slash line, 41 dingers, and 110 RBI.
However, the system forecasts a return to earth for Dom Smith, with a .271/.329/.474 projected line for the 2021 campaign.
Michael Conforto, at 3.9, and Jeff McNeil, at 3.6, are the Mets’ with the most projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to ZiPS.
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