Why The New York Mets Should Be Very Cautious About 2020

The New York Mets had a 86 win campaign after a red hot second half, and it looks like blue skies ahead for this young team. The Mets now have a bullpen, and with Edwin Diaz’s peripherals showing he was severely unlucky and by adding names like Dellin Betances. The Mets lineup has young stars such as Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo, and unexpected heroes such as JD Davis. And of course, their amazing bright and always deep starting rotation- wait, their starting pitching isn’t as strong as it seems anymore.

Rotational Issues

So the New York Mets starting rotation went from Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and the superstar Jacob deGrom with Marcus Stroman as their 4 and Steven Matz as their 5. That rotation was elite and had the MLB’s 7th best ERA, but now? They lost Zack Wheeler to the Phillies, and then Syndergaard to injury. Now you have Stroman as your two, who’s a good but not great #2 option, and now they have Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to replace their two stud starters for 2020. Their pitching took a massive blow, and with their main identity being their starting pitching, this won’t bode well for the Mets

Better Competition

The NL East winning Braves and World Series Champion Nationals are both in their division, and barring any realignments, the Diamondbacks got quite a lot better, and the Mets could be out of the playoff race because of not being able to pass the Nats or D-Backs in win totals. There are only 3 possible playoff spots for the Mets, and I don’t see them being better than the Nats or Braves, and the D-Backs won 85 games and got significantly better by adding two outfielders in Kole Calhoun and Starling Marte and a pitcher in Madison Bumgarner. It won’t be easy at all for them to make it to October

Defensive Mess

The Mets didn’t do much to address the CF positions because Jake Marisnick is probably not starting over JD Davis, Michael Conforto, or Brandon Nimmo unless the Mets sacrifice their offensive prowess for defense. Even then the Mets ranked 24th in UZR with a -12.8 and 28th in DRS with -86 DRS in 2019. These metrics show that this team is a mess defensively, and with everyone in their projected starting 5 except for Jacob deGrom had a K/9 in their career at 9 or above, so they are going to have a lot of balls in play. This could prove detrimental for their pitchers trying to pitch to contact.

What About Their New Skipper?

Luis Rojas will probably be able to manage pretty well for this ballclub, but with their offense being good, not great (probably 9th or 10th), their bullpen being solid but still having question marks, their rotation being severely weakened, and their defense still a mess, this team could win 85 games but it probably wouldn’t be enough to make the postseason. Call me a hater, but the numbers don’t lie, this team isn’t an elite squad and to put them in 90 win talks just yet. They aren’t division winners in my eyes and they’re a 2nd wild card team to me if I’m being nice.

How good do you think the Mets will be in 2020?