David Stearns and Steve Cohen have never been shy about spending money, but there is a massive difference between being aggressive and being reckless. As the free agent market for starting pitching thins out faster than the hair on a stress-riddled GM, the Mets find themselves in a precarious position.
With Dylan Cease snatched up by the Toronto Blue Jays in a flash, the “sure things” on the open market are gone, leaving a landscape littered with injury risks and question marks that demand nine-figure commitments.
According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets are increasingly reluctant to hand out long-term offers to the remaining free agents, and frankly, who can blame them?
Toronto pounced on Cease because his underlying metrics and health history screamed consistency, whereas the leftovers—like an injury-prone Michael King or the enigmatic Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai—carry the kind of volatility that gets front office executives fired.
The strategy has shifted from “buy the best arm available” to “don’t pay a premium for a headache,” which means the phone lines at Citi Field are about to get very busy.
Blockbuster Dreams vs. Frontline Reality
If the free agent path is a minefield, the trade market is the high-stakes poker room where Stearns feels most comfortable.
The dream scenario, whispered in every bar from Astoria to Massapequa, is a blockbuster for Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. The lefty just posted a Triple Crown season with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts, essentially proving he is the best pitcher on the planet not named Paul Skenes. Acquiring him would require a prospect haul that makes even the most hardened fan flinch, likely costing top chips like Jett Williams or Jonah Tong and then some. Still, it guarantees an ace who is arguably safer than any free agent available.
On the more “realistic” end of the spectrum lies Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins, a workhorse who might lack Skubal’s Cy Young hardware but offers the stability this rotation desperately needs. Ryan went 13-10 with a 3.42 ERA over 171 innings in 2025, striking out 194 batters while maintaining a walk rate that makes pitching coaches weep with joy. He is the kind of solid, high-floor acquisition that stabilizes a staff without requiring a complete farm system liquidation, allowing the Mets to keep their “dream rotation” hopes alive for 2026 without mortgaging the entire future.
The Risk Aversion Is Justified
Some fans might clamor for the Mets to just “pay the money” for a guy like Michael King, but looking at his 2025 campaign explains the hesitation. Despite a sparkling 2.75 ERA, his season was marred by knee and shoulder inflammation that limited him to just over 100 innings. In a world where availability is the best ability, gambling $100 million on a pitcher with a flickering “Check Engine” light is bad business, regardless of how nasty his sinker is.
Similarly, Tatsuya Imai offers tantalizing upside with his 1.92 ERA in Japan, but he represents an unproven commodity adjusting to a new ball, a new schedule, and a new country. The Mets are in the business of winning World Series titles, not funding science experiments in the rotation. By pivoting to the trade market, they can target known quantities—pitchers who have already proven they can handle a major league workload without falling apart in August.
Looking Ahead: Creativity Over Cash
The path to a championship-caliber rotation in 2026 is still open, but it won’t be paved with simple check-writing. Stearns will need to be creative, perhaps packaging major league talent with mid-tier prospects to land a guy like Ryan, or finding a third team to facilitate a larger move. The reluctance to sell the farm is admirable, but if the goal is to hoist a trophy, hoarding prospects while trotting out a patchwork rotation is a strategy destined for failure.
The Mets have the assets to make a splash without drowning, but it requires the discipline to walk away from bad free agent contracts and the guts to pull the trigger on a painful trade. The window is open, the money is there, but the smartest play right now might be keeping the wallet in the pocket and putting the prospects on the table.
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