The pitching market waits for no one.
While the New York Mets were busy recalibrating their offseason wishlist, the Toronto Blue Jays kicked down the door and threw $210 million at Dylan Cease. That is a massive number for a guy coming off a 4.55 ERA, but smart teams know that surface stats are lying to you half the time. Cease had an 80th percentile chase rate and a 95th percentile whiff rate last year. He was essentially a Ferrari with a flat tire, and Toronto just paid to fix the tire.
For the Mets, this is a wake-up call. The top shelf of the free agent aisle is getting cleared out, and their rotation currently looks like a jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces missing.
A Rotation Full of Question Marks
David Stearns has his work cut out for him. You look at the current depth chart and it inspires anxiety rather than confidence. Kodai Senga is an immense talent when he is on the mound, but trusting him to stay healthy is a gamble the team keeps losing. Behind him, you have exciting but unproven kids like Nolan McLean (McLean flashed elite stuff last year) and Jonah Tong.
You cannot go into a 162-game grind relying on rookies and medical reports.
They recently cut Frankie Montas, which was the right move for performance but the wrong move for depth. They need bodies. More importantly, they need quality bodies that don’t break down in June. The rotation needs a stabilizer, not another lottery ticket.
The Michael King Intrigue
This brings us to the next tier of available arms. You have names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Ranger Suarez floating around. But the most fascinating name for New York might be Michael King.
King is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball when his body cooperates. Just look at the snapshot from last season:
- 3.44 ERA
- 74.1 innings pitched
- Elite swing-and-miss stuff
The problem is the workload. 74 innings isn’t enough for a frontline starter. Signing King is a high-risk, high-reward play. If he gives you 150 innings, he is a Cy Young contender. If he gives you 70, you are scrambling for bullpen games in September. Yet, with the way the market is exploding, King might be the smartest pivot. He won’t command the $210 million Cease got, but the upside is nearly identical.
The Trade Market Bailout
Free agency isn’t the only avenue. The trade market offers a distinct path, specifically regarding Tariq Skubal.
Acquiring Skubal would be a franchise-altering move. He is arguably the best left-handed starter on the planet. But the cost would be astronomical. You are talking about emptying the top tier of the farm system. Is it worth trading the future for the present? Maybe.
The ideal strategy for the New York Mets involves a double dip. You don’t just sign King or trade for a starter; you do both.
Sign Michael King to provide that high-ceiling performance. Then, trade for a cost-controlled starter who can eat innings and keep the payroll from exploding further. Relying solely on Nolan McLean to step up is malpractice. The Mets have the resources to build a fortress of a rotation. They just watched one big fish swim north to Canada. They can’t afford to let the rest of the pond dry up before they cast their line.
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