Should the Mets go after former Astros ace in free agency?

The New York Mets know exactly where their biggest weakness lies — the starting rotation. Despite having arms like David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Clay Holmes under contract, the group doesn’t inspire full confidence. Some are recovering from injuries. Others haven’t proved they can handle the grind of a full season. None, at least right now, fit the profile of a bona fide ace who can set the tone every fifth day.

Senga, when healthy, flashes that kind of upside. McLean might eventually reach that level if his development continues on track and he can stay dominant for a full year. But as of now, the Mets don’t have a true number one starter — and that void showed when the club fell short of the postseason. Their decision to skip adding an impact arm at the deadline looms large in hindsight.

Stearns’ next move: find a difference-maker

President of baseball operations David Stearns isn’t one to make the same mistake twice. He’s already exploring both the free agent and trade markets to bring in a legitimate rotation anchor. The rumor mill has churned out plenty of intriguing names — from Detroit’s Tarik Skubal to Minnesota’s Joe Ryan — but another option has quietly emerged: free agent lefty Framber Valdez.

Valdez’s availability brings experience, poise, and a track record of success that few can match. But his fit in Queens isn’t without questions.

The case for and against Framber Valdez

Danny Abriano of SNY recently weighed in on the possibility of Valdez joining the Mets. His take leaned cautious. “It doesn’t seem like he’s about to drop off dramatically,” Abriano wrote, “but giving a 32-year-old pitcher a six-year deal is a risky proposition, especially when that pitcher doesn’t miss bats at an elite level.”

That skepticism isn’t unfounded. Valdez has been steady throughout his career with the Houston Astros, posting a 3.36 ERA and carrying them through countless big moments, including the 2022 World Series run. He’s the kind of pitcher who thrives under pressure, leaning on his heavy sinker and knack for ground balls rather than overpowering velocity.

Still, Valdez’s strikeout rate — hovering around 20 to 25 percent for most of his career — could potentially start declining soon. At his age, even a slight loss of movement or command could tilt the balance between dependable and vulnerable. For a team trying to build a long-term contender, that risk looms large.

A gamble with timing attached

The dilemma for Stearns and the Mets isn’t just about Valdez’s ability — it’s about timing. Signing him would mean paying for past production and hoping his durability carries through his mid-thirties, at least. It’s the kind of deal that could either stabilize the rotation for years or become an expensive reminder of overcommitment.

As Abriano noted, “At some point, Stearns might have to splurge on an uncomfortable free agent deal for a starting pitcher. Valdez doesn’t seem like the guy to do it for.” That statement captures the Mets’ challenge perfectly. They need a front-line starter badly enough to take a swing, yet the wrong choice could stall the progress of the team.

In a way, it’s like walking a tightrope — steady, calculated, and with no room for a misplaced step. The Mets have the resources and motivation to chase top talent, but when it comes to Framber Valdez, they’ll have to decide whether the stability he offers today is worth the uncertainty of tomorrow.