Sean Manaea’s fastball has lost 4 mph and nobody can explain why

Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity is down, and the New York Mets aren’t pretending otherwise, but they’re also not hitting the panic button.

Through 2 Grapefruit League starts, Manaea has averaged 88.4 and 88.8 mph on his fastball respectively, topping out at 90.4. That’s a significant gap from where he was 2 years ago, when he averaged 93.1 mph on the four-seamer during spring training before his breakout 2024 season. According to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, the left-hander says he’s fully healthy, and manager Carlos Mendoza is taking him at his word. But the gap between where Manaea’s velocity is and where it needs to be is getting harder to ignore.

Sean Manaea’s Rough Road Back

Last year was a mess for him. A right oblique issue wiped out his entire Grapefruit League schedule early in camp, and during the rehab process a loose body was discovered in his left elbow, keeping him off the mound until mid-July. When he finally got back, the results were rough, going 2-4 with a 5.64 ERA across 12 starts and 3 relief appearances. His fastball averaged 91.7 mph over that stretch, already down from the 92.2 he posted in 2024. He never had the elbow surgically repaired, finishing the season feeling healthy, but the ripple effects appear to still be lingering.

Mendoza, speaking to DiComo, pointed to the nearly year-old oblique as a possible root cause of mechanical issues that haven’t fully been corrected yet. On top of that, Manaea is working on raising his arm slot slightly, which could be contributing to the velocity drop on its own. Asked directly whether the loose elbow body might be the culprit, Mendoza sidestepped the question and kept the focus on mechanics and reps. “I know it’s going to be a topic here,” Mendoza told DiComo. “I’m not concerned as long as he keeps telling us that he’s healthy. And that’s what he keeps telling us: ‘I feel great.'”

Manaea himself doesn’t have a clean answer. “I think it’s just getting more reps,” he told DiComo. “Other than that, I don’t have any explanation.”

That’s not exactly a reassuring quote 2 weeks before Opening Day, but it’s also not a death knell. Pitchers do work up to velocity as spring progresses, and Manaea has shown he can operate with a varied arsenal when he’s healthy and right mechanically. His changeup and sweeper are reportedly in good shape, and he’s experimenting with a cutter to give hitters a different look while the fastball catches up. The 2024 version of Manaea leaned heavily on pitch mix and movement, so there’s a blueprint for survival even if 93 mph doesn’t come back right away.

Still, the clock is real. The Mets open the season March 26, and there’s only so many live outings left in Jupiter. Manaea is in year 2 of a 3-year, $75 million deal, and while his rotation spot isn’t in jeopardy, the organization needs him to be a legitimate arm, not a liability in a 6-man rotation built on optimism.

Mendoza put it plainly to DiComo: “It’s going to come down to him feeling good. It might take a few weeks. It might take a month. Who knows?”

The hope in Flushing is that the velocity finds its way back before it becomes a much bigger conversation. Right now it’s a spring training storyline. By late April, if the fastball is still sitting at 88, it becomes something else entirely.