The 2025 season was supposed to be the year Sean Manaea proved himself as a mid-rotation starter for the New York Mets. Instead, it turned out to be a warning of instability and lost time. After a resurgence season for Manaea in 2024, his 2025 season collapsed into a frustrating mix of an injury shortened season and serving meatballs for opposing batters, Manaea is leaving the Mets with more questions than answers entering 2026.
The 34-year-old southpaw is looking to turn the page, as the narrative shifts from a “reliable veteran” to a potential “rebound candidate.” The raw stuff is clearly still there, his strikeout numbers prove it, but for Manaea to provide value in 2026, he needs to stay on the mound and keep the ball in the yard.
The 2025 Drop-Off: Elite Command Undone by the Long Ball
Looking solely at Manaea’s command in 2025, you’d think he had a career year. He posted a dazzling 11.13 K/9, striking out 75 batters in just 60.2 innings, while limiting walks with an elite 1.78 BB/9. However, those underlying metrics were completely undone by the long ball. Manaea was destroyed, allowing a staggering 1.93 HR/9, surrendering 13 homers in his limited action. That home run problem inflated his ERA to an ugly 5.64, which was significantly higher than his 4.39 FIP, suggesting he pitched better than his surface-level stats, just not well enough to avoid the damage.
The most glaring stat from Manaea’s 2025 line isn’t the ERA, it was the workload. He appeared in only 15 games, starting in only 12 of them in just 60.2 innings pitched. For a pitcher the Mets relied on to eat innings, losing him for a significant part of the season strained the bullpen. A 2-4 record is negligible in today’s game, but his inability to take the ball every fifth day is a major red flag for his age-34 season. The Mets need him to triple that inning count in 2026, but his recent injury history makes it a risky bet.
2026 Outlook: Can Manaea Be the Bridge the Mets Need?
Despite his ugly surface numbers from 2025, the projections see a significant bounce back for Manaea in 2026. Steamer is the most optimistic, projecting a 3.87 ERA over 136.0 innings, with a 9.23 K/9. ATC and THE BAT are slightly more conservative, expecting a 4.10 ERA and 4.13 ERA respectively. The consensus is clear, the projections believe that his 5.64 ERA was an anomaly driven by bad luck and small sample size, and they are expecting him to settle back into being a solid, sub-4.20 ERA starter.
What is Sean Manaea to the 2026 Mets? He probably is not the set it and forget it innings eater we want, but he is a high upside bridge in the back half of the rotation. The projections expect his walk rate to regress, climbing back up to around 2.96 BB/9 according to Steamer, but if he can maintain even some of that whiff-ability he showed in 2025, while normalizing his home run rate, he can become a much needed asset. He is an experienced veteran that, based on the data, is still missing bats at an elite pace.
The Mets are going into 2026 with a need of stability and Manaea is going into the season with a need of redemption. If the Steamer projection is correct, posting a 3.87 ERA over 136.0 innings, Manaea can successfully re-establish his value. However, his floor is lower than ever. If the home run issues continues, and his durability doesn’t improve, then he risks becoming an expensive bullpen piece. But given the underlying metrics, specifically that impressive K/BB ratio, then there’s plenty of reason to believe that the lefty has plenty of gas left in the tank.
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