The Mets have adopted a strategy of extreme patience this winter, waiting for the free agent pitching market to come to them rather than chasing overpriced arms.
While this approach protects the long-term payroll, it risks leaving the rotation short-handed if the value grabs never materialize. President of Baseball Operations David Stearns is clearly hesitant to overpay for flawed veterans, and looking at the top three remaining options, his skepticism is entirely justified.
Framber Valdez Is a Workhorse with a Glass Jaw
At first glance, Framber Valdez looks like exactly what the Mets need: a durable veteran who just tossed 192 innings with a respectable 3.66 ERA. He remains elite at keeping the ball on the ground, boasting a 59.4% ground ball rate that ranked in the 97th percentile last season. However, signing Valdez requires ignoring some truly terrifying underlying metrics that suggest a steep decline is imminent.
The issue is that when batters do elevate the ball, they are crushing it; Valdez ranked in the 10th percentile for average exit velocity and the 9th percentile in hard-hit rate. He is essentially a pitcher who relies on defense and luck to survive loud contact, a formula that rarely ages well in the homer-happy National League East. Stearns likely sees a pitcher whose best days are in the rear-view mirror, and paying a premium for that regression is a trap the Mets must avoid.
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Ranger Suarez Offers Finesse with a Fatal Flaw
Ranger Suarez represents a more intriguing option, offering a different look as a 30-year-old lefty coming off a strong campaign with the Philadelphia Phillies. His ability to limit damage was elite last season, ranking in the 95th percentile for average exit velocity and the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate. He posted a 3.20 ERA over 157.1 innings, using a lethal changeup and curveball combination to keep hitters off balance.
The problem for Suarez lies in his primary weapon; his sinker has lost zip, averaging just 90.1 mph, and opponents teed off on it to the tune of a .310 batting average and .402 slugging percentage. If that velocity dips even slightly more, his entire arsenal could collapse, turning him from a mid-rotation stud into a liability. The Mets need certainty, and Suarez’s reliance on perfect execution makes him a high-risk gamble for a team with championship aspirations.
Tatsuya Imai Is the High-Voltage Wild Card Stearns Should Covet
If the Mets are hesitant to pay for the decline of Valdez or the volatility of Suarez, then Tatsuya Imai represents the perfect pivot to high-upside youth.
At just 27 years old, the Japanese right-hander fits David Stearns’ preferred timeline far better than the aging domestic options. Imai is coming off a dominant campaign in NPB where he posted a sparkling 1.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 163.2 innings, racking up 178 strikeouts. Unlike the “pitch-to-contact” profiles of the other available arms, Imai is a legitimate power pitcher who misses bats at an elite clip.
His arsenal is headlined by a heater that sits 95-96 mph and touches 99, but his mechanics make him a nightmare to square up. He throws from a lower arm slot that creates a flat vertical approach angle, allowing his fastball to ride above bats at the top of the zone.
However, his true “money pitch” is a “wrong-way slider” that features unique arm-side movement, diving in on right-handed hitters in a way that few MLB pitchers can replicate. Pairing that with a devastating splitter and changeup, Imai offers the kind of electric, top-of-the-rotation potential that the Mets are desperate for, likely at a fraction of the long-term cost of an established MLB ace.
Honorable Mention: Zac Gallen Is a Safety Net, Not a Savior
Finally, there is Zac Gallen, who feels less like a solution and more like a stopgap measure for a rotation that needs an ace. The right-hander is coming off a down year where his ERA ballooned to 4.83 over 192 innings, a far cry from the sub-3.70 mark he posted the year prior. While his durability is a plus, his underlying metrics suggest he is settling into mediocrity rather than gearing up for a bounce-back.
Gallen would likely demand a short-term “pillow contract” to rebuild his value, but the Mets are hunting for a frontline starter, not a reclamation project. With Valdez and Suarez presenting significant red flags and Gallen failing to meet the elite threshold, it is becoming increasingly clear why the Mets are hesitant to strike. Ultimately, the smartest move for Stearns might be to bypass this flawed free agent class entirely and push his chips into the trade market for a true difference-maker.
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