NY Mets’ $500 million roster sits at the bottom of the MLB standings

The New York Mets entered Friday’s series opener in Chicago having lost 8 consecutive games, sitting at 7-12 — tied for the second-worst record in baseball with the Colorado Rockies, a franchise that just completed its third straight 100-loss season. That comparison alone tells you how badly this roster has underperformed its price tag.

The $500 million payroll the Mets assembled this winter was supposed to make them a contender from day one. Right now, it has produced the 26th-ranked offense in baseball by WAR. During the 8-game skid — a series loss to the Diamondbacks, as well as sweeps at the hands of the Athletics, and Dodgers — the lineup hit .175 with a .471 OPS and struck out 65 times while scoring 12 runs across those 8 games. Since Monday, Mike Trout has hit 5 home runs. The Mets have hit 3.

Francisco Lindor is slashing .184/.287/.289, a wRC+ of 71 that reflects one of the worst stretches of his career. Brett Baty has gone 0-for-18. Mark Vientos is 0-for-his-last-23. Juan Soto remains sidelined with a strained right calf, leaving a lineup that was already struggling without its most important bat. The team’s .281 wOBA ranks 26th in the majors. Their wRC+ of 78 is the fourth-lowest in baseball.

What makes this situation genuinely difficult to process is that the pitching staff is 9th in baseball by WAR, posting a 3.83 ERA and a 3.57 FIP as a unit. The arms are doing their job. The offense just isn’t giving them anything to work with.

The Cubs Are Not the Cure, But They’re the Right Opponent For The Mets Right Now

Chicago isn’t exactly rolling heading into this weekend either. The Cubs sit at 9-9, fifth in the NL Central, and rank 22nd in pitching by WAR. Their rotation has been inconsistent and their bullpen has been patchy. What they do have is an offense that’s 4th in baseball by WAR — a lineup that just dropped 11 runs on the Phillies on Tuesday. The Mets are going to have to earn every inning here.

Game 1 goes to Kodai Senga, who is 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The surface numbers look alarming, but his FIP sits at 3.81 — his .417 BABIP and 61.3% strand rate are both clear regression indicators. His stuff is still there: 96.7 mph on the fastball, 29.7% strikeout rate through 14 innings. He’s been getting hit harder than he should and stranding fewer runners than he should. Neither of those things tend to last. Friday is a real test of whether the correction is coming or whether the early-season noise is masking a deeper issue with his approach.

Freddy Peralta takes the ball in Game 2. His 3.86 ERA in 21 innings is right in line with his projection, and his FIP of 3.93 suggests he’s been pitching about as well as the numbers say. He’s been steady. Game 3 goes to David Peterson, who has a 6.41 ERA on a .391 BABIP that is not sustainable — his FIP of 3.37 is the best of the three starters this weekend, and his underlying indicators suggest he’s been much better than the results show.

The rotation, at least on paper, gives the Mets a real chance to win all 3 games this weekend. FanGraphs’ projections still have this team finishing 84-78 on the full season. The model believes in the roster. The question is whether the roster starts believing in itself.

If the Mets can’t put up runs against a Cubs pitching staff that ranks 22nd in baseball, the conversation is going to shift from “slump” to “something is structurally wrong with this lineup.” Soto’s return next week will help. But a team this expensive can’t keep waiting on one player to fix everything. The Cubs series starts today, and the Mets need it badly.