Quinton Fesq
Eight months ago, Nolan McLean was still pitching in Triple-A. Tuesday night, he takes the mound for the United States in the World Baseball Classic. That’s a real sentence.
McLean’s 2025 arc is the kind of thing prospect fans dream about. He opened the year at Double-A Binghamton with a 1.37 ERA in 5 starts before earning a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse, where he ran a 2.78 ERA with 97 strikeouts over 87 innings. The New York Mets called him up August 13, and his debut on August 16 against the Mariners set the tone immediately, 5.1 innings, zero runs, 8 strikeouts, and his first career win. He never really slowed down, finishing the year 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 8 starts. He is the runaway favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year in 2026.
The arsenal explains why. He relies on a sinker in the 94-96 mph band with a foot more drop and six more inches of armside movement than his four-seamer, producing a 60.2% ground ball rate and a .152 batting average against last season. The sweeper at 85 mph is the put-away pitch, generating a 30% whiff rate with some of the nastiest horizontal break in the game. Six pitches total, all above average. The stuff is not a mystery, it’s just hard to hit.
The USA Rotation Has Been Locked In
Team USA came in with a stacked plan and the first 3 games confirmed it. Logan Webb got Game 1 against Brazil, Tarik Skubal got Game 2 against Great Britain, and Paul Skenes drew Mexico on Monday. McLean closes out pool play Tuesday against Italy.
Webb did his job and got out early, throwing 4 innings while allowing 1 hit and 1 run with 6 strikeouts. Skubal followed the same script against Great Britain, going 3 innings with 1 run and 5 strikeouts before handing it off to a bullpen that included Clay Holmes, who threw 3 perfect innings with 6 strikeouts to close out a 9-1 win. Starters are pitching into the 3rd or 4th inning and the bullpen is finishing the game. I don’t expect McLean to be any different.
65 Pitches and Out
This is the part worth understanding before Tuesday. Pitchers in WBC pool play are hard-capped at 65 pitches per game, and that’s not a recommendation, it’s a rule. On a normal night in midseason form, an efficient McLean might work into the 6th on 80 pitches, but here in early March the math puts him somewhere between 3 and 4 innings regardless of how sharp he looks. He’s also reportedly dealing with an illness heading into the start, which gives manager Mark DeRosa even more reason to be conservative. I’d call it 3-4 innings if everything goes smoothly, fewer if his command is off or Italy makes him work.
Italy is not Brazil. Vinnie Pasquantino is the headliner, coming off a 32-homer, 113 RBI season with the Royals, and he’ll be one of the biggest power threats at the entire tournament. Kyle Teel of the White Sox, plus outfielders Jac Caglianone and Dominic Canzone, are legitimate power bats who can punish mistakes, and Italy has already gone 2-0 in pool play after crushing Brazil 8-0 and beating Great Britain 7-4. They came to Houston to advance, not to participate.
That said, I think McLean’s ground ball profile sets up well against this lineup. His sinker that held opponents to a .152 average last season is not going anywhere, and the sweeper can put away right-handed hitters who have never seen it. The one real concern is the left-handed side of Italy’s order, where McLean’s numbers were more hittable in 2025 and where he’ll need to lean on his cutter and four-seamer more than usual. I think that’s a manageable adjustment, but it’s the matchup worth watching.
The Prediction For Nolan McLean
My projection: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB. McLean gets through the lineup once with his best stuff, and hands a comfortable lead to a bullpen that has been shutdown for 2 straight games. The illness is a wildcard, but nothing in his 2025 numbers suggests he won’t compete hard in a short outing.
The Mets’ young star has been waiting for a stage like this. Tuesday night in Houston, he gets one.
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