Nolan McLean took a massive step forward for the New York Mets last season, and his 2026 projections suggests he is ready to be a permanent piece in this rotation. He came into the organization as a two-way player, but he ended up becoming a full-time pitcher in 2024. That decision has paid off faster than most people expected. After tearing through the minor leagues last year, McLean proved that his stuff plays at the highest level. He is no longer just a high-upside prospect, he is a legitimate starter that the team can rely on to eat quality innings.
Breaking Down Nolan McLean’s 2025 Breakout
Nolan McLean started his 2025 season by showing that he was of too good to compete in Double-A and Triple-A. He posted a 1.37 ERA in 26.1 innings with Binghamton, and had a strikeout of over 10 batters per nine innings. And when he was assigned to Syracuse, he didn’t slow down, he tossed 87.1 innings with a 2.78 ERA, showing he could handle a heavier workload while keeping his walk rate under control.
When he finally received a big league call, he had already thrown over 113 innings in the minors with a 2.45 ERA and 127 strikeouts. This played a big role as it showed that he had the stamina to be able to start every five days without his velocity or command declining.
When he finally reached Queens, the results were even better than the underlying metrics predicted. In eight MLB starts, McLean went 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He threw 48.0 innings and struck out 57 batters, which is exactly the kind of production you want from a young arm. His 2.97 FIP and 3.56 xERA suggest there was a little bit of luck involved, but not enough to take away from what he accomplished. He finished the year with a 30.3% strikeout rate, which is elite for a starting pitcher, while also keeping his walk rate at a manageable 8.5%, which was one of the biggest question marks surrounding him when he first turned pro.
The Analytics Behind His Stuff
The reason Nolan McLean is so effective comes down to his pitch mix that kept hitters off balance. He relies heavily on a sinker and a sweeper, which accounted for over 50% of his pitches in 2025. His sinker averages about 95 miles per hour and generates a lot of ground balls, which you can see in his 60.2% ground ball rate from last season.
This allows him to get out of trouble and keep his pitch count low. On the other side of the plate, his sweeper is a legitimate put-away pitch, as it sits in the mid-80s with a ton of horizontal movement, and is a big reason why he manages to get so many swings and misses.
Beyond the primary two pitches, McLean has a deep enough arsenal to go through a lineup three times. He mixes in a curveball around 16% of the time, and still uses a four-seam fastball. His extension is also a major factor, as he releases the ball about 6.6 feet, making his 95.8 mph heater feel even faster to the batter. The most impressive part of his 2025 season is that he hardly allowed any hard contact with only an 8% barrel rate, while keeping his hard-hit rate at 43.4%, which showed that even when guys do make contact, they aren’t often squaring it up.
Expectations For The 2026 Rotation
Looking ahead to 2026, the projections are a little cautious, as they still see a very productive pitcher. Systems like Steamer and the FanGraphs Depth Chart (FGDC), have him projected for around 145-150 innings with an ERA in the high 3s. For a 24-year-old pitcher, throwing 150 innings with a 3.80 ERA is incredibly valuable. They also expect his strikeout rate to settle in around 22% or 23%, but based on what we saw in 2025, there is a good chance he outperforms those numbers. The main goal for him this year will be proving that the 2.06 ERA wasn’t a fluke and that he can maintain his health over a full 162-game schedule.
McLean is likely going to start as a high-end number three starter with the ceiling of a co-ace. He provides a different look than some of the other arms on the staff because of that heavy sinker and elite extension. If he can keep the walks around that 3.00 BB/9 that he established in the big leagues last year, he will be one of the most consistent options for the team, as he has all the tools to be a cornerstone arm in this rotation for a long time.
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