Quinton Fesq
The New York Mets are building a rotation of the future in a very unique way, as they are positioned to have more potential Top 100 ranked starting pitching prospects, drafted outside the top two rounds over the next couple of years, than every other MLB franchise. This is a massive shift from how most teams operate. Here is how they are doing it.
How the Mets Break the Mold
Credit to @AngryMike24 on X for pointing out some of these incredible draft trends. What is really impressive is the fact the Mets are doing things the exact opposite of every other team. Currently, 80% of their best starting pitching prospects were drafted outside the top two rounds.
Even wilder, 70% of their top starting pitching prospects were drafted in rounds where the success rate is only 20% to 30%. They are developing legit studs while 70% to 80% of players drafted by other teams do not even make it to the major leagues. This is a massive difference in player evaluation and player development. Guys like Nolan McLean, who was taken in the third round, are leading the way. You also have Jonah Tong and Will Watson, both seventh-round picks where the historical success rate is less than 20%.
The overwhelming majority of MLB teams focus on drafting starting pitchers in the top two rounds because of considerably higher success rates. A first-round pick has an 81% success rate of reaching the majors. A second-round pick has a 64% success rate. The Mets have traded highly touted guys from the top of the draft like second-rounder Brandon Sproat, but the real story is their success in the middle and later rounds.
The scouting department has done a remarkable job identifying players with elite upside. Then the pitching lab and development personnel take over. They work with these players to help them elevate their prospect profiles exponentially, much faster than it historically takes the majority of other pitching prospects.
Beating the Draft Odds
This goes completely against the grain of the rest of the league. Over the past three years, 72% of the top pitching prospects ranked on Top 100 lists were drafted in the top two rounds. Looking at MLB Pipeline from 2024 through 2026, there are 59 pitchers listed. Of those 59 pitchers, 44 came from the top two rounds. Only 15 pitchers came from outside the top two rounds. This shows how rare it is to find elite pitching late in the draft.
The overall success rates drop sharply after the early picks. Data from SABR shows third-rounders hit at around 39.7%, fourth-rounders at 35%, and fifth-rounders at 33.3%. Anything from rounds six through ten drops to 20.4%. Christian Scott is a perfect example of beating the odds. He was a fifth-round pick who made the Top 100 list in 2024.
The Next Wave of Arms
The pipeline just keeps growing. The Mets have several other starting pitching prospects who have the potential to be added to the Top 100 rankings in 2027. Jonathan Santucci is another second-round talent to watch. Zach Thornton was drafted in the fifth round and is steadily climbing the ranks. Jack Wenninger was taken in the sixth round, where the success rate drops down to roughly 20%. All three of these guys have the potential to crack the Top 100 lists by next year. This consistency proves that the Mets are not just getting lucky. They have a real system in place to find and develop talent.
There are even more arms a couple of years away from making noise. Peter Kussow was drafted in the fourth round and is a name to keep an eye on. Camden Lohman is another great example. He was an eighth-round pick, a spot where the success rate for pitchers plummets all the way down to just 1.7% according to some Top 100 prospect metrics. Kris Gross has taken things to a whole new level since taking over as the Vice President of Amateur Scouting. The Mets are finding guys that other teams overlook and turning them into premium assets. This approach gives the franchise a massive competitive advantage for years to come.
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