The New York Mets spent Wednesday night holding their breath, and not because of the playoff race scoreboard. They were watching rookie Jonah Tong, a pitcher they hope can be a long-term piece, but instead saw him look every bit the wide-eyed freshman on a big stage. The Mets fell 10-3 to the Chicago Cubs, who are coasting with the first Wild Card almost secured, but the final score only tells half the story.
For a fan base already stretched thin by a rollercoaster season, the night felt like another gut punch—at least until the out-of-town scoreboard offered some relief.
The bright side: rivals stumble too
As poorly as the Mets played, they didn’t lose ground in the Wild Card chase. Both of their primary competitors—the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks—lost tough games. Cincinnati dropped yet another matchup to the Pirates, while Arizona couldn’t hold off the Dodgers at home.
That leaves the Mets at 81-77, clinging to the final National League playoff hope by a single game over both the Reds and D-Backs, each sitting at 80-78. The math is simple enough: win, and you’re in. But in practice, nothing about this Mets season has been simple.
Jonah Tong’s unraveling inning
For two innings, Jonah Tong looked steady, pounding the zone and even flashing the poise that made the Mets believe in him. Then came the third inning—a stretch that unraveled as quickly as a fraying sweater thread.
Seven hits, two walks, and five runs later, Tong’s night was effectively over. He struck out just one batter, and while the raw stuff is there, consistency continues to elude him. It was the kind of start that leaves a manager wondering whether the kid’s ceiling is worth the short-term pain.
For a team this deep in the race, it’s a harsh reality check. The Mets can’t afford pitchers learning on the job right now.
A rotation under siege
Tong isn’t alone in the inconsistency. The Mets’ rotation has been shaky for weeks. Kodai Senga is in the minor leagues, trying to work his way back. David Peterson and Sean Manaea have struggled to string together quality outings. Even Clay Holmes has faltered when his team needed him to be steady.
The rotation has been like a cracked foundation under a house—no matter how flashy the offense looks, it all wobbles without that stability. The lone exceptions have been rookies Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, who have emerged as bright spots at precisely the moment the club needed new energy.
The playoff math
Here’s what matters most: the Mets need to finish ahead of both Cincinnati and Arizona to claim the final Wild Card. That’s easier said than done.
The tiebreaker scenarios don’t favor New York. The Reds took four of six from the Mets this season, meaning Cincinnati wins any tie. The Diamondbacks split their six matchups with New York, but their superior intradivision record gives them the edge if both clubs finish even.
In other words, the Mets have no margin for error. With just four games left, every pitch, every inning, and every mistake will count double.
All eyes on Nolan McLean
The good news? The Mets turn to Nolan McLean on Thursday in the series finale against the Cubs. The rookie sensation has been nothing short of dominant, carrying a 1.27 ERA into the biggest start of his young career.
It’s exactly the kind of ace-in-the-making moment the Mets have been waiting for. Win behind McLean, and they enter a weekend series against the Marlins with a sliver of cushion and perhaps a touch of swagger.
Still in their hands
At the end of the night, the story remains the same: the New York Mets still control their fate. If they win their remaining four games, they’re going to the postseason. No help required.
That’s the beauty and the cruelty of baseball in late September. One night, Jonah Tong is on the mound and everything feels like it’s slipping away. The next, a rookie like Nolan McLean could step in and flip the entire narrative.
For now, Mets fans can only hope the kids are ready to carry the weight of a franchise still desperate to prove it belongs in October.
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