Mets setting their sights on Japanese star with a 1.92 ERA

The New York Mets are turning their attention overseas as they search for starting pitching help, and Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai has quickly become one of the more intriguing names on their radar. With free agency heating up, Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns is expected to cast a wide net — and Imai’s profile fits the kind of arm that could stabilize the middle of New York’s rotation.

Standing at 5-foot-11 and weighing just 154 pounds, Imai isn’t built like a traditional MLB workhorse. What he lacks in physical size, he’s made up for in precision and poise. Pitching for the Seibu Lions last season, Imai threw 163.2 innings with a dominant 1.92 ERA, 178 strikeouts, and just six home runs allowed. His command was sharp, giving up only 45 walks and keeping hitters off balance with a mix of mid-to-high 90s velocity and a deceptive breaking ball.

That kind of production has naturally drawn attention — but also some hesitation.

Not everyone is sold on his MLB transition

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “The Mets will be in on free agent pitcher Tatsuya Imai, whose NPB team, the Seibu Lions, will post this offseason. But I don’t expect the team to mount a Yoshinobu Yamamoto-style, full-tilt pursuit. Why? Evaluators like Imai but suggest that he is no sure thing to succeed as an MLB starter. His mid-to-high ‘90s fastball might or might not play here; industry opinion on that is mixed.”

That skepticism matters. While Imai’s numbers in Japan are elite, history has shown that translating NPB success to MLB consistency isn’t automatic. The league’s smaller ballparks, tighter seams, and different strike zones can inflate pitching results. Imai will need to prove that his velocity and command can hold up against lineups built to punish mistakes.

A high-risk, high-upside play for the Mets

If the Mets pursue Imai, it won’t be cheap. His projected contract is expected to come in around eight years and $200 million, averaging $25 million annually. That price tag reflects both his dominance in Japan and the scarcity of top-end pitching on the free-agent market.

At 27 years old, Imai would give the Mets a long-term rotation piece entering his prime, but he’d also carry more uncertainty than an established MLB ace. His workload, delivery, and ability to adapt to a five-day rotation instead of six will all be factors in whether he thrives or struggles in the transition.

Still, the upside is undeniable. Imai’s fastball velocity and pitch movement are legitimate weapons, and his poise on the mound suggests he could handle the pressure of New York. For a Mets team desperate to find stability alongside Kodai Senga, taking this kind of calculated risk might be necessary to stay competitive in a rapidly improving National League.

Weighing cost, risk, and reward

For Stearns, the decision on Imai will come down to how much risk he’s willing to absorb. The Mets need arms who can miss bats, eat innings, and avoid the injury pitfalls that derailed their past two seasons. Imai fits two of those three criteria — and at his age, there’s plenty of room for growth.

The Mets have made big international bets before. This one would be smaller than Yamamoto’s but potentially just as pivotal. If Imai’s stuff plays, they’ll have a front-line starter for years. If not, it could be another expensive lesson in the unpredictable nature of pitching across leagues.