Two hundred million dollars is a staggering amount of money to commit to a pitcher who just watched his ERA creep closer to four than three.
That is the reported price tag attached to Framber Valdez right now, and it is enough to make any front office sweat through their dress shirts. The rumor mill, specifically a report from Hector Gomez, has the New York Mets listed as the favorites to land the veteran left-hander on a six-year deal. If that number holds true, we are looking at a $33 million annual salary for a guy who is already 32 years old.
That feels like a panic buy in a market that is quickly spinning out of control.
Paying for the floor instead of the ceiling
You have to respect the durability Valdez brings to the table. In an era where pitchers seem to land on the injured list if they sleep on a fluffy pillow, Valdez posts up every fifth day. He tossed 192 innings last season and has been a picture of health for years. The Mets desperately need that kind of stability given the questions surrounding their current rotation.
But look at the production you are buying.
Valdez took a step back last year. He finished with a 3.66 ERA, which is solid but hardly dominant. He struck out 8.77 batters per nine innings. That is decent, but it isn’t the kind of overpowering stuff that usually commands over $30 million a season. You are essentially paying ace money for a high-end number two starter.
The ground ball merchant
The reason the New York Mets are even entertaining this is because of one specific skill. Valdez keeps the ball in the yard better than almost anyone on the planet. He ranked in the 97th percentile in ground ball rate last season, forcing hitters to pound the ball into the dirt nearly 60 percent of the time.
That profile plays beautifully in Queens.
He relies on a heavy sinker, a curveball, and a changeup to neutralize damage. When he is right, he is a double-play machine who can erase a leadoff walk with one pitch. However, there were some red flags with that signature sinker last season. Hitters seemed to see it better, and it got batted around more than we are used to seeing.
If the sinker loses even a tick of movement or velocity, Valdez becomes incredibly hittable. He relies on contact management. When the contact gets loud, the game gets ugly fast.
The Mets’ age curve gamble
The scariest part of this rumor is the term. A six-year deal takes Valdez through his age-38 season. We rarely see sinkerballers age gracefully into their late thirties without a significant drop-off.
There is nothing in his current metrics that screams immediate regression. His velocity held up fine relative to previous seasons. His swing-and-miss numbers were slightly above average. He is still a very good pitcher.
But “very good” and “$200 million” usually don’t belong in the same sentence unless you are desperate. The Mets need pitching, and they have the deepest pockets in the sport, so perhaps they don’t care about the back end of the deal. They might just want the reliable innings right now.
Signing Valdez would be a high-floor move. You know he is going to give you 180 innings of competitive baseball. You know he won’t be afraid of the big stage. But you also have to accept that you are likely paying for past performance rather than future dominance. It is a safe move, but at that price point, “safe” feels awfully expensive.
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