The 87-69 New York Mets have played so well over the past few weeks that they have put themselves in an excellent position to make the postseason after a rough start of the season. They won six of the seven games of their last homestand, including three of four against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Mets have also gotten victories in 15 of their last 20 contests, 19 of their last 25, and 64 of their last 100. This is a very underrated team heading into the last few games of the regular season, and while they still haven’t made their presence in October official, they are inching closer.
Up ahead is perhaps their biggest series of the season: a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park that will likely decide one of the Wild Card spots in the National League.
As of Monday afternoon, the San Diego Padres boast the best record among non-division winners at 90-66. The Mets are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second (and third) Wild Card spots at 87-69, and the Braves are two games behind at 85-71.
Danny Abriano of SNY went through some clinching scenarios involving the Mets. The math, he says, is simple: if they take at least two of three games from the Braves, they’re in; and if they go at least 4-2 over their final six games, they’re also in.
The Mets can lose the Atlanta series and still clinch under specific circumstances
Even if the Mets win just one out of three games in Atlanta, they will still control their own destiny if they sweep the Brewers in Milwaukee over the weekend. Even dropping two against the Braves and not sweeping the Brewers lets the Mets live as long as Atlanta loses one or more games in their own weekend matchup against the Kansas City Royals. New York would need to take two in Milwaukee in that case, though.
Now, if Atlanta sweeps the Mets, things get murky for the latter. They would lose control of their own destiny because the Braves would go up one game in the Wild Card standings before the weekend and would hold the tiebreaker, too. In that case, the Mets would need to sweep or win at least two in Milwaukee while hoping the Royals can give them a hand with Atlanta.
It’s important to note that the Mets and Braves can both make it to October if the D-Backs have a bad week, as they are a team to watch, too. If the Mets and the Snakes finish tied in the standings, New York holds the tiebreaker.
In a crazy, but still possible scenario, the Mets can win the division if they go 6-0 this week and the Phillies lose all of their remaining games.
