The New York Mets have never been a team to shy away from bold moves. This offseason, they handed Clay Holmes $38 million and promptly asked him to do something he hadn’t done in years—start.
It was an ambitious experiment, a creative gamble that had Mets fans daydreaming of a breakout, Cy Young-level season after a dazzling spring. But two starts into the regular season, the reality of Holmes’ transition is a bit more complicated.
Walking the Tightrope
Holmes’ early numbers are a bit of a magic trick. A 2.89 ERA might suggest he’s adjusting well, but his 1.82 WHIP tells a different story—one of too many walks, too many hits, and a constant high-wire act.
He has, for now, managed to escape major damage, but how long can he keep pulling off these great escapes before the act falls apart?
The Missing Bite
A big part of Holmes’ effectiveness as a reliever came from his ability to generate whiffs and, especially, weak contact with his sinker. Last season, he had a 30.2% whiff rate. This year? A stark drop to 16.9%. That’s not just a small dip—it’s a red flag.
One of the culprits seems to be his sinker velocity. In 2024, it averaged 96.6 mph. Now, with the workload of a starter, it’s down to 94.1 mph, making it much easier for hitters to track and square up. The results are glaring: a .488 wOBA against and a .462 slugging percentage allowed on the pitch.
Finding the Right Mix
To attack the issue, the Mets have urged Holmes to expand his pitch mix. Instead of relying so heavily on his sinker, he’s being encouraged to work in more of those nasty kick changes, some sweepers, cutters, sliders, and even a sneaky four-seamer.
It’s all part of the growing pains that come with transitioning from a reliever’s sprint to a starter’s marathon.
A Work in Progress
Holmes isn’t completely lost—his 10 strikeouts in 9.1 innings suggest there’s still plenty to like. But he’s in the midst of a delicate balancing act: learning how to pace himself for longer outings, refining his command, and adjusting to a different pitch mix. The foundation is there. Now, it’s about tightening the screws before the magic runs out.