A strange thing happened down the stretch in 2025. The New York Mets, who opened the year with a rotation that looked functional, missed the postseason when things started to go south in June, with injuries and key stars struggling to find their footing.
Even with Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong all under contract for 2026, the stretch run proved they need more. They need at least one frontline starter, at the very least.
The cost of chasing certainty
That conclusion is exactly what has driven their early offseason behavior. New York has checked in on almost every starter with a pulse in free agency, and they’ve poked around the trade market to see what’s actually attainable. The problem is the same on both fronts: price. The going rate for high-end pitching has climbed to a place where even the Mets, with all their financial muscle, have to pause and take a breath.
Quality innings have become the sport’s premium currency. Every team wants them, few teams have enough of them, and the ones that do are guarding them like family treasure. You pay in years or you pay in prospects, and usually you pay in both. That’s where the Mets’ hesitation becomes obvious. They’ve never been scared of dollars, but years feel like a different conversation entirely.
A philosophical friction point
This is where David Stearns factors in. He’s made it clear through both his track record and reporting from Will Sammon that long-term pitching commitments are not something he gives out casually. Elite free agent arms want five, six, sometimes seven years. The Mets are reluctant to meet those demands, even when the pitcher is talented enough to justify some level of discomfort.
Framber Valdez is the perfect example. He’s still excellent, but he’s entering his age-32 season, which raises questions about decline and durability. Michael King brings electric stuff but also a medical file that makes teams nervous. Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Tatsuya Imai — all intriguing, all expensive in the one area the Mets seem least willing to bend.
That tension isn’t new for this front office, but it does feel sharper this winter. They know what they need, but they don’t like how they have to get it.
The trade avenue offers possibilities, but not discounts
If the Mets decide long-term contracts are a nonstarter, the trade market becomes the next best path. The names are fascinating: Freddy Peralta, Tarik Skubal, Edward Cabrera. Each could slide in near the top of the Mets rotation and change the tone of the staff. Each also comes with a prospect cost significant enough to leave a dent.
Milwaukee, Detroit, Miami — none of these teams are giving away frontline pitching for anything short of an elite young talent. The Mets have prospects they like, and they’ve been disciplined about not emptying the system just to check a box. Discipline is commendable. It’s also risky when you’re trying to win now.
Standing still isn’t really an option
The Mets can talk themselves into the rotation they currently have, and there’s an argument for patience. Senga healthy for a full season is a boost by itself. Peterson’s growth is real despite second half struggles. McLean is a budding ace, and Tong and Sproat could surprise. But relying on internal optimism is how a team wakes up in July wondering why its season feels stuck in neutral.
At some point, the Mets simply need another difference-maker. Someone who walks in and raises the bar for everyone else. The kind of starter you trust with a season on the line.
They’re right to be cautious. They’re also right to be searching. But eventually they have to act, because the one thing that won’t change is the math: without another top-tier arm, the Mets are betting on a 2026 path that doesn’t really exist.
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