Luis Robert Jr. is officially a member of the New York Mets, and this might be the most fascinating “buy-low” acquisition David Stearns has made this offseason. We know Stearns loves to find value where others see risk, but trading for the former White Sox superstar is a massive swing on elite tools that have been poor the last few seasons. The Mets are betting that a change of scenery, and perhaps better health, can unlock the MVP-caliber player we saw just a few years ago.
The 2025 Drop-off: A Sea of Red Flags
Luis Robert Jr.’s 2025 season in Chicago was a disaster. He slashed a pedestrian .223/.297/.364 over 110 games, resulting in an OPS of just .661. That production led to a wRC+ of 84, meaning he was 16% worse than the league-average hitter. For a player who was once considered the future face of the American League, those numbers are startling. The power outage was the most concerning part, as he managed only 14 home runs in over 400 plate appearances.
The issue wasn’t just bad luck, either. His plate discipline, which has always been a question mark, completely bottomed out. He struck out 26% of the time, yet his 9.3% walk rate was actually a career-high, it didn’t make up for the lack of contact though. When he did hit the ball, he wasn’t driving it with the power we are used to seeing. His Expected Slugging (xSLG) of .426 sat in the 54th percentile, suggesting that his poor surface numbers were actually pretty accurate. He looked lost at the plate for long stretches, and the White Sox clearly felt it was time to move on before his value tanked completely.
The Underlying Metrics: Why Stearns Made the Deal
So why did David Stearns pull the trigger? The answer lies in the raw physical tools that simply do not exist in most players. If you look at his Baseball Savant page, it is a confusing mix of elite physical gifts and poor execution. Even in a down year, Robert Jr. possessed elite bat speed, ranking in the 92nd percentile. This tells us that the physical ability to crush a baseball is still very much there. He hasn’t lost his bat speed, he just isn’t making enough contact to use it.
The other massive selling point is his defense and speed. Robert Jr. remains one of the most athletic players in the sport. He ranked in the 90th percentile for Sprint Speed and, more importantly for the Mets, he was in the 93rd percentile for Range with 7 Outs Above Average (OAA). We know how much this front office values defense, even if he never hits .280 again, his ability to patrol center field at an elite level gives him a remarkably high floor. He essentially provides the same defensive value as a Harrison Bader type, but with the potential to hit 30 home runs if he figures out his timing. That is a gamble worth taking every single time.
Can Luis Robert Jr. Bounce Back in 2026?
The projection systems are cautiously optimistic that 2026 will be a rebound year for the center fielder. The FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) project him to play roughly 131 games and post a 97 wRC+, which would make him just under the league average offensively. They also expect the power to return, projecting 21 home runs and 29 stolen bases. If the Mets get a 20/30 season from their center fielder with Gold Glove-caliber defense, this trade is a massive win.
However, Steamer is a bit more skeptical, projecting a 95 wRC+ and a .235 batting average. These systems are essentially banking on a regression to the mean. They don’t expect him to be the superstar of 2023, but they also don’t think he will be the liability he was in 2025. The key for Robert Jr. will be his health and his swing decisions. If he can cut his chase rate down from the 20th percentile range and force pitchers to come into the zone, his natural bat speed will do the rest.
At the end of the day, this is a high-risk, high-reward move for the Mets. Luis Robert Jr. doesn’t need to carry the offense. Robert can slide into the bottom third of the order and focus on being a dynamic athlete. If he hits, he could be the steal of the offseason. If he doesn’t, he’s still an elite defender who can steal 30 bags. For a team with October aspirations, that is exactly the kind of depth piece you want to have.
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