If you asked any Mets fan in 2021 what they wanted from Francisco Lindor, they would have begged for stability. But fast forward to 2026, and Lindor has become the elite player that you pen in for 6.0+ fWAR and a 30/30 season before the first pitch is thrown in Spring Training. His 2025 season was another masterclass, posting a .267/.346/.466 slashline with another 30/30 season, hitting 31 homers and swiping 31 bags.
But as the 32-year-old shortstop enters the 2026 season, the context around him has shifted dramatically. With David Stearns assembling an Avengers-level lineup featuring Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Luis Robert Jr., the pressure on Lindor to be the sole savior of the franchise has finally evaporated. But the question for 2026 isn’t whether Lindor can carry the Mets, it’s whether he can be the leader that keeps this $350 million payroll from falling apart.
Breaking Down Francisco Lindor’s 2025 Season
The narrative around Lindor’s 2025 season might be “business as usual,” but the underlying reality was far grittier. Lindor posted a 6.3 fWAR, his fourth consecutive season of 5+ WAR, despite playing through a fractured pinky toe suffered on June 4th. That injury tells the story of his season’s volatility. While he still managed to secure his second consecutive 30/30 season, the injury noticeably sapped his range.
For the first time in his Mets tenure, we saw genuine defensive regression, with his Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) dipping to -1 and his Outs Above Average (OAA) falling to a career-low 5. He was still above average, but he wasn’t the platinum-glove shortstop we’ve grown accustomed to, largely because he was grinding through games on a broken toe.
When we look his underlying metrics, we see a player who is evolving rather than declining. However, the most glaring drop off in 2025 was his barrel rate, which fell from an elite 13.6% in 2024 to a pedestrian 8.8% last season. This wasn’t a result of bat speed declining, but instead it was likely a mechanical compensation for his broken toe injury.
Lindor actually improved his contact skills, as well as dropping his whiff rate from 23.7% to 20.8%. It seems as Lindor is trading his raw explosion for bat-to-ball skills, a necessary skill for a shortstop entering his mid-30s. While he might not crush the ball as often in 2026, he is going to put the ball in play, which is exactly what this new-look lineup needs.
The 2026 Expectations & Lineup Fit
Steamer sees Lindor as a top-tier contributor in 2026, projecting a slash line of .259/.337/.453 with 26 home runs and 23 stolen bases. While those numbers represent a slight “regression to the mean” from his 2025 season, they still paint the picture of a top-5 shortstop in baseball. With the Mets’ lineup now stacked with high-variance stars like Robert Jr. and Bichette, Lindor’s projected consistency is a safety net that allows the rest of the offense to take risks.
In 2025, Lindor often had to expand his zone to drive in runs because the bottom of the order was an unproductive black hole. But in 2026, that shouldn’t be necessary. With Soto likely locking down the No. 2 or No. 3 spot and Bichette in the No. 3 or No. 4 hole, Lindor can settle back into the leadoff role or the No. 2 hole without the burden of being the primary power source.
This shift in responsibility should help his walk rate, which dipped slightly to 8.9% last year, tick back up towards double digits. If pitchers try to pitch around him, they are now putting a runner on for Juan Soto, which is a nightmare scenario for opposing managers and a dream scenario for Lindor’s run-scoring potential.
Francisco Lindor doesn’t need to be the MVP in 2026, he just needs to be the captain and a leader in the clubhouse. The Mets have spent the offseason acquiring superstars, but this is still Lindor’s team. His 2026 expectations should be not be set by MVP voting shares, but by his ability to lead the team around him. If he can maintain a 120 wRC+ and play 150+ games, he will show how he is worth every penny of his $34.1 million salary. If his toe is healed and the defense stabilizes, 2026 could be the year Lindor finally leads this franchise to a shot at the World Series.
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