If you liked the Francisco Alvarez experience in 2023 (power) and 2024 (defense), 2025 was the year you finally got… well, half of a complete player. And only for half a season.
The Francisco Alvarez 2026 season is based entirely on which version of the Mets’ young catcher shows up to Spring Training; the offensive force who posted a 124 wRC+ in limited time last year, or the defensive liability whose framing metrics fell off towards the end of the season.
For a player once seen as the franchise cornerstone, Alvarez enters his first arbitration year with more questions than answers. The Mets were able to avoid an arbitration hearing by settling on a $2.4 million contract with Alvarez, a bargain if he hits, but a sunk cost if his thumb, and his glove don’t hold up.
The 2025 Tease: Efficiency Over Volume
Alvarez’s 2025 stat line reads like a “what if” story. In just 76 games, he slashed .256/.339/.447. They aren’t MVP numbers, but for a catcher, they are very nice to have on a team. His .787 OPS was a massive jump from the .710 mark he set in 2024, largely because of his more disciplined approach, which helped his walk rate increase to 9.7%.
Alvarez wasn’t just getting lucky; he was barreling the ball. His underlying metrics project a potential breakout in 2026. His xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average) of .347 was above league average, and when he made contact, it was loud. Alvarez’s problem was his availability. Through 2025, Alvarez suffered a fractured left hamate bone, right thumb UCL sprain, and a fractured left pinky.
The Defensive Regression
This is where the skepticism can be justified. Alvarez saved his season with elite framing and 1.92-second pop time in 2024, but in 2025, the defense fell apart.
According to scouts, his receiving regressed and his framing measures fell from the 84th percentile (2024) to league average (2025). Even worse, his blocking went from “a work in progress” to “a liability,” forcing the Mets to rely on their backups even when Alvarez was healthy. Whether it was the lingering hand injuries or a mechanical problem, Alvarez looked uncomfortable behind the dish. For a team with ambitions to win a championship, having a catcher who can’t steal strikes or block balls in the dirt is a designated hitter waiting to happen.
Francisco Alvarez 2026 Outlook and Projections
So what are the expectations for Alvarez this season? The projections are cautious, as Steamer expects a regression to the mean, projecting a .241/.320/.458 slash line with 20 home runs over 99 games.
These projections will depend on his plate discipline against secondary pitches. Opposing scouts pointed out a clear vulnerability to sliders away late last season, which will be ruthlessly exploited in 2026. Unless Alvarez tightens up his chase rate, that projected power output will be suffocated by a steady diet of competitive breaking balls.
The Mets aren’t committed to Alvarez as the undisputed starter as they were two years ago. The $2.4 million price tag is low enough that they can afford to platoon him if his defense is unable to bounce back.
His exit velocity is not the metric to watch in Spring Training, but instead keep an eye on his Pop Time and Blocks Above Average. If his thumb surgery restored his grip strength and receiving stability, he is a potential top-10 catcher and a legitimate middle of the order bat. If the defensive yips continue, he’s a part-time slugger with no defensive home.
Alvarez enters 2026 as the roster’s biggest question mark. His bat is legit, but his glove is a major red flag. Expect the Mets to ride his bat early, but don’t be shocked if his playing time is limited to hide his defensive deficiencies.
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