The New York Mets made a low-risk move this winter by bringing in Craig Kimbrel, and now all eyes are on whether the veteran closer can actually make the team out of Spring Training. It’s hard to believe we are talking about a guy with 440 career saves fighting for a roster spot on a minor league deal, but that is just the reality of baseball. He isn’t the same guy who dominated for the Braves a decade ago, but there might still be something left in the tank for 2026.
I know a lot of fans see the name and get excited about the history, or maybe you get nervous thinking about his shakier moments in recent years. The truth is somewhere in the middle. He is coming into camp with a real chance to grab a spot, especially with the bullpen dealing with some injuries early on. Let’s take a look at what he has done, where he is at now, and if we should expect to see him in Queens on Opening Day.
A Legendary Career in the Rearview
We have to respect what Kimbrel has done before we judge what he is doing now. This guy has put together a career that is going to land him in Cooperstown one day. He has racked up 440 saves over 16 seasons, sits fourth all-time in strikeouts for relievers, and has a World Series ring from 2018.
He was the most feared arm in the game for a long time. From his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2011 to his dominant stretch with the Red Sox and Cubs, he was basically automatic. But we also know the last few years have been a bit of a wild ride. He has bounced around from the Dodgers to the Phillies to the Orioles, and while the strikeout numbers have always been there, the command has come and gone. He is 37 years old now, so nobody is expecting him to be the closer he was in his prime, but you don’t rack up those kinds of numbers by accident.
Making Sense of a Weird 2025 Season
His 2025 season was one of the strangest stat lines I have ever seen. If you just look at the surface numbers, you see a 2.25 ERA and think he was lights out. But he only pitched 12 innings in the big leagues all year. He started with the Braves, got let go after just one inning, spent time in the Rangers’ minor league system, and then finished strong with the Astros.
The analytics tell a more complicated story than that nice 2.25 ERA. His fastball velocity sat at 93.5 mph, which is in the 35th percentile. That is a huge drop from the days when he was blowing 98 past everyone. However, he can still make guys miss. He posted a 34.7% strikeout rate last year, which is still elite, and his whiff rate was nearly 30%. The issue was the walks. He walked over 14% of the batters he faced, which is a recipe for disaster if you aren’t striking everyone out.
The underlying metrics suggest he got a little lucky last year too. His xERA (expected ERA) was 4.10, which is almost double his actual ERA. That means he probably gave up some hard contact that found gloves, or he pitched out of jams that usually turn into runs. It wasn’t a bad season, but it was a very small sample size that leaves us with more questions than answers.
Craig Kimbrel’s 2026 Projections & Roster Verdict
So what can we expect for 2026? The projections are pretty split on him. The FGDC system projects him to throw about 32 innings with a 4.16 ERA. Steamer is a little more optimistic, pegging him for a 3.92 ERA. Basically, the computers think he will be a league-average reliever who strikes out a lot of guys but walks too many.
For the Mets, this is all about depth. With A.J. Minter likely out until April or May, there is a hole in the middle innings that needs filling. Kimbrel is competing with guys like Huascar Brazobán for one of those final spots. The Mets signed him to a minor league deal, so there is zero risk here. If he looks cooked in Spring Training, they can cut him loose without losing anything.
Here is the thing, I think he makes the team. The Mets need experience in the bullpen behind Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. Kimbrel’s fastball isn’t what it used to be, but he has started mixing in a sweeper and relying more on his curveball to keep hitters off balance. If he can just keep the walks down to a manageable level, his ability to get strikeouts is still valuable. I expect him to break camp with the Mets, pitch in low-leverage spots to start, and hopefully give us 40 decent innings while the rest of the bullpen gets healthy.
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