Carson Benge might be the most interesting internal piece for the New York Mets as they head into Port St. Lucie this spring. Benge was the Mets’ first-round pick in 2024, and is a homegrown solution to the Mets outfield shortage. However, his path to Citi Field is not as straight as his quick climb up the minor league ladder might suggest. David Stearns has made it clear: Benge has a chance to break camp with the team, but given his 2025 splits and 2026 projections, the organization faces a tough decision on whether to put him on the Opening Day roster.
The 2025 Rollercoaster: From Breakout to Reality Check
In order to get an idea of what Benge will look like in 2026, we have to break down the absolute whirlwind that was his 2025 season. He began the year in High-A Brooklyn and made hitting look effortless, but it was his stint in Double-A Binghamton that got him noticed. Through 32 games with the Rumble Ponies, Benge slashed an insane .317/.407/.571 with a .978 OPS. He wasn’t just hitting, he was absolutely dominating the strike zone, showing a rare blend of contact and power. His 184 wRC+ at that level suggested a hitter who had completely outgrown his competition, forcing the Mets to challenge him with a late-season promotion to Triple-A Syracuse.
But then reality hit. The jump to Triple-A is often seen as the most difficult adjustment in baseball, specifically due to the experience of veteran pitchers who know how to take advantage of aggressive young hitters. Benge struggled in Syracuse, posting a .178/.272/.311 slash line over 24 games. His strikeout rate increased, and his power disappeared, leaving him with a pedestrian .583 OPS. Although a 24-game sample size is not enough to press the panic button, it served as a wakeup call to the fact that a prospect’s development is not always a smooth sailing.
Carson Benge’s 2026 Projections
The projection systems are urging caution for 2026, as Steamer and ZiPS are expecting a player who will go through significant growing pains against MLB pitching. Steamer projects Benge to hit just .236 with a .314 on-base percentage (OBP) and a .371 slugging percentage in 73 games. ZiPS is slightly more optimistic, expecting a .246 average and a .399 slugging percentage over 116 games, which is good for a 106 wRC+.
For a rebuilding team, a 106 wRC+ from a rookie is a massive win. But for this Mets team, it’s a question mark. A .724 OPS (ZiPS projection) would make him a serviceable starter, but it hardly makes him an immediate impact bat. These numbers suggest that although Benge has the raw tools to succeed, he might end up being closer to a league-average contributor in his rookie year than the savior some fans are hoping for. The projections also highlight his speed, with both systems projecting him for roughly 6-11 stolen bases, adding a dynamic aspect to the bottom of the order that this lineup tends to lack.
The 2026 Verdict: Opening Day or Mid-Summer Spark?
At the end of the day, Benge’s path to the majors will be defined by the calculated patience of David Stearns. We know Stearns values depth and defensive versatility, and Benge’s ability to play all three outfield spots gives him a leg up. With the team likely eyeing a deep postseason run, they can afford to let Benge start the season in Syracuse to overcome the level that humbled him last fall.
If Benge is able to tear up the Grapefruit League, he could force Stearns’ hand and land on the bench as a 4th outfielder or a platoon bat. But the smarter bet is for Benge to be called up when an injury inevitably strikes or if the back end of the outfield rotation falls apart.
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