The Mets signed A.J. Minter last January to a two-year, $22 million deal, to solidify the back end of the New York Mets’ bullpen, in hopes of pairing the lefty veteran with Edwin Díaz and form a lockdown duo. But instead, Mets fans only got to see a small sample size of dominance that got cut short. As we head into the 2026 season, the question isn’t about Minter’s talent, but his durability. He is coming off season-ending lat surgery that derailed his debut season in Queens, yet Minter enters 2026 as arguably one of the most pivotal X-factors in the bullpen.
The Shortened 2025 Campaign
To understand what we can expect in 2026, we have to look at the brief but brilliant sample size Minter provided in 2025. In just 13 appearances, he posted a pristine 1.64 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP across 11.0 innings. The swing-and-miss stuff was electric, evidenced by his 14 strikeouts and a stellar strikeout rate. He was doing exactly what President of Baseball Operations David Stearns brought him here to do: miss bats in high-leverage spots.
However, Minter’s underlying metrics from his Baseball Savant page paint a more complex picture from his short stint. He put up a 34.2% Whiff rate, and a 32.6% K rate, which were elite, sitting in the top tier of the league. But throughout his short stint, there were red flags regarding his velocity, his fastball averaged roughly 94.5 mph in 2025, placing him in the 52nd percentile, which is a notable dip from his years in Atlanta. Even though he his velocity clearly dipped, his cutter was still an absolute weapon, being used 48% of the time to create weak contact and swings out of the zone.
Unfortunately, his momentum came to an end when Minter ended up suffering a torn lat muscle, requiring season-ending surgery in May. This was a huge blow to the Mets bullpen that was already starting to thin out, and it forced Minter to watch the majority of the season from his couch.
Fortunately, this wasn’t a UCL reconstruction, and the timeline for his return is far more encouraging than the grueling 12 to 18-month Tommy John rehab. The southpaw might not end up missing any time at all in 2026. According to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, there is a real chance that Minter can break camp with the team this spring. Even if he does need a little more time to ramp up, the Mets are expecting a minimum amount of time on the injured list at most, meaning the Mets could get their lefty arm back almost immediately.
2026 Projections and Outlook
The projections are cautiously optimistic about Minter’s ability to contribute in 2026, though they are moderate about the volume of his workload. Steamer is expecting Minter to post roughly 56.0 innings with a 3.30 ERA, and a strikeout rate hovering around 10.28 K/9. These numbers suggest that Minter will return to form, as a reliable setup man, even if he isn’t the sub-2.00 ERA pitcher we saw in that small 2025 sample.
The key to Minter’s success in 2026 will be the efficacy of his cutter-fastball combination. As shown in his 2025 movement profile, Minter relies heavily on the separation between his cutter (moving toward the glove side) and his four-seamer (riding with arm-side run). If the lat surgery has no lingering effects on his release point or extension, he should be able to replicate the 3.19 xERA (Expected ERA) he posted last season.
Ultimately, A.J. Minter’s 2026 season will be defined by availability. The Mets don’t need him to be a the setup man anymore, they just need him to be reliable. If he is able to manage 50-60 innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball, the contract will look like a bargain. But coming off major surgery at age 32, Minter is still a high-risk, high-reward asset. If the velocity returns and the lat holds up, the Mets have a sneaky elite arm in their bullpen.
More about:New York Mets
