What’s that sound you hear, New York Knicks fans? Just the tank rolling on, now in full swing as we approach the All-Star break in another lost season. But even as the team draws closer and closer to what will likely be their second-worst win total in franchise history, there is hope. Much of that comes due to the upcoming lottery and draft, where the Knicks should (dare we dream) have a top-three selection.
We all know about how amazing Duke’s Zion Williamson is, and if the Knicks have the first overall pick, he should be the choice. But if Zion is not available, Scott Perry and Steve Mills should look to Murray, Kentucky, where they will find a lanky guard who is every bit as entertaining (and maybe as good) in Temetrius “Ja” Morant.
Who is he?
For any Knicks fans who have been oblivious to the various mock drafts and big boards and the weekly SportsCenter highlights, allow me to introduce you to the 19 year-old Morant. He stands at 6’3 and weighs just 175 pounds, but has tantalizing athleticism that he uses to get to the rim seemingly at will, and he has also proven to be a more than capable rebounder and passer, as well as a solid defender.
On the season, Morant is averaging 24.3 points (54% shooting, 34% from three), 5.9 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game for the Racers, who sit at 15-2. He’s become well-known because of his incredible dunks and several off-the-chart single-game performances. He scored 38 points and dished out nine assists against Alabama, had 26 points and 18 dimes against UT Martin, and put 40 points and 11 assists on SIUE. He’s gone from two-star recruit with offers from South Carolina State and Maryland-Eastern Shore in the span of just two years, and he has become a near-lock to be a top-five pick come June.
What does he do well?
As I mentioned earlier, Morant’s athleticism is the key to his game. He pushes the ball at every opportunity, and won’t hesitate to attack the rim. He’s quick in the open court, and has a tight handle, something NBA teams will look for when they try to project him at the next level.
He currently leads the NCAA in assists per game by a wide margin, and it’s that passing ability that turns him from a scorer to a complete point guard. Part of the reason he’s so intriguing for the Knicks is his potential fit in coach David Fizdale’s fast-paced system.
Fizdale has pushed Emmanuel Mudiay to improve his conditioning and attack the basket relentlessly, and it has resulted in a career year for the former lottery pick.
Morant could excel if given the reins to the offense, and could create looks for teammates as well as score at the rim, just as he has in college. He’s also an excellent free throw shooter (80.6%), as evidenced by a conference record 21-21 performance from the line against SIUE.
Where does he struggle?
There are three primary concerns with Morant as a prospect: turnovers, shooting, and level of competition. First, he’s averaging 5.0 turnovers per game and has a turnover percentage of 21.0, both of which are sky-high. With a conference-leading usage rate of 32.0, Morant has the ball in his hands more than almost any other player in the country, and he is prone to making several “WTF” decisions per game.
It’s particularly frustrating on lobs, where Morant will often throw up passes that have no chance of being caught. Turnovers are a problem, but it has not historically prevented teams for drafting players high. For example, Trae Young averaged 5.9/18.2% at Oklahoma and was drafted fifth.
His shooting from three has been shaky as well; he’s shooting 34% on 4.6 attempts, and has a form that worries some. Fortunately, he ‘HAS’ shown an ability to make threes, including from several steps beyond the arc, and his high free throw percentage may be an indicator that he will have success in the league.
An interesting comparison
The third criticism of Morant is that he plays for Murray State, a small school that plays in the Ohio Valley Conference. In response to that, I’d offer up two rebuttals. First, his production against SEC schools Alabama and Auburn, where he scored a combined 63 points on 23-43 shooting, pulled in 17 rebounds, and dished out 12 assists.
Secondly, a comparison to the sixth pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, Damian Lillard, who played his college basketball in the Big Sky Conference, where he averaged 24.5 points (46.7% shooting, 40.6% from three), 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.5 steals in his junior year, the last of his college career.
The advanced stats, too, show similarities between the two players, as Lillard had a 33.0 usage rate, a .635% true shooting percentage (Morant’s is .645%), and 34.0 PER (Morant is at 33.6). Lillard is an example of a player who’s game translated, despite playing weaker competition, even immediately as he won Rookie of the Year.
Morant’s fit on the Knicks
If the Knicks were to select Morant, they would likely let Emmanuel Mudiay walk. Assuming they don’t land a star free agent, the Knicks would go into the 2019-20 season with a core of Morant, Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina (in an off-ball role), Kristaps Porzingis, and Mitchell Robinson, along with other interesting young guys like Allonzo Trier, Dameyean Dotson, and Luke Kornet (if he is re-signed). He and Ntilikina could make for an interesting pairing, as Morant could theoretically run the offense while Ntilikina locked down the opponent’s best player.
High praise:
If what I have said can’t convince you, take it from someone Knicks fans may have heard of: Mr. Kevin Durant. When asked by The Ringer’s Bill Simmons who his favorite college player is, Durant replied: “I like the kid from Murray State. Morant, Ja Morant, he’s pretty good.” That’s high praise from one of the best players in the NBA, and a guy who is a self-proclaimed basketball nerd who really knows the game. He also happens to be the guy us Knicks fans want so badly to choose our team this summer. It’s not like drafting Morant would land us Durant, but it is certainly interesting.
As it stands right now, the Knicks have a 14.0% chance of getting the number one pick, so it is important to keep open minds and realize that there are some really good players not named Zion Williamson in this class. I happen to think Ja Morant is the best of that gro