On Sunday the New York Jets will look to wash off the stink of their two most embarrassing losses this season.
The New York Jets are set to play the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. This will be the second meeting between the two teams this season, the Dolphins won the first.
The Dolphins are coming off a victory against the Philadelphia Eagles Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a second loss to a win-less team this season.
The Dolphins offense is a special kind of weird. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is eight in the NFL in QBR. That’s ahead of Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. So, Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing some of the best football of his career.
Yet, the Dolphins still rank 29th in offensive DVOA. That’s because they have no other talent on the team. Their running game has failed to get off the ground this year. Their leading rusher is Mark Walton who has 201 rushing yards this season. The Dolphins top two RBs in rushing yards don’t even meet the low bar that Le’Veon Bell has set this season. That’s how poor their running game is.
Meanwhile, DeVante Parker is having a breakout year for the Dolphins. He’s healthy for the first time in his career this year and he’s taking advantage of it. He has 854 receiving yards on 53 catches, which puts him on pace for 1,138 yards. Parker had never had even 800 yards receiving before this year.
Part of Parker’s success is that he’s finally healthy, but that’s not the big reason. The big reason why is because the team lacks talent. Parker is the only player on the team with more than 60 targets and at least 40 receptions.
When an overflow of targets go one way it’s easy to inflate numbers. Parker’s numbers aren’t as good as they look at first glance. He has just a 57% catch rate and 9.2 yard per target. Those numbers aren’t too different from Robby Anderson who is having a hugely disappointing year. The only difference is that Parker gets more volume.
The Dolphins defense is the worst in the NFL by DVOA. The Dolphins defense is on pace to allow 503 points this season. that would be the second-most in NFL history.
Their passing defense has been especially horrendous. IT rates as the worst in the NFL by DVOA. They have the worst pass rush in the NFL backing up that awful secondary. The Dolphins are dead last in pressures and sacks. There is nothing good to say about their passing defense. The Jets should shred it, but they failed to do so just a few weeks ago, so anything is possible.
The Dolphins run defense is a little better rating 29th in DVOA. That shouldn’t matter much on Sunday. The Jets rarely run the ball anymore, with Bell running the ball only nine times last week. Even if the Jets did run the ball it wouldn’t matter much since Bell might not play.
There’s no statistical reason to believe the Dolphins should win this game, but that didn’t stop them a few weeks ago. The games aren’t played on paper for a reason. Any given Sunday anything can happen.