With our MVP rankings after April done for both the American League and National League, we’re jumping over for MLB‘s Cy Young race, which has begun to take shape with nasty hurlers off to great starts. Unlike the AL MVP race, no one is off to the historic start that would effectively make it a race for second place, which makes for a much more interesting conversation. ERA and innings pitched are two big metrics for this debate, but I will be using some underlying data like FIP, K-BB%, and xERA as well.
The subjective nature of weighing underlying metrics with results to try and distinguish between pitchers with similar run prevention data makes this list difficult to nail down, so tweet at me (@RyanGarciaESM on Twitter) to tell me what you disagree with!
10. Casey Mize – Detroit Tigers
Casey Mize has been incredible for an upstart Detroit Tigers team that has been the best in the American League through the first month of the season. His fastball has gotten better results, there’s more diversity in his arsenal, and he looks remarkably comfortable on the mound. Few pitchers have suppressed damage contact better than Mize has this season, and the extremely low walk rate has kept hitters off base. The Tigers have developed their 2018 first overall pick into a real force in their rotation, and he earned his spot on this list after years of inconsistency.
9. Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers
Jacob deGrom is not the historically dominant version of himself we saw with the New York Mets, but he’s remained one of the best pitchers in the game. His strikeout rate is only in the 62nd Percentile, but what encourages me is that his Whiff% is in the 80th Percentile and the damage suppression is elite. DeGrom has an elite slider and fastball, the changeup is becoming an excellent weapon for him, and the command is still some of the best in the sport. Jacob DeGrom may never put up a sub-2.00 ERA again, but this is still an elite pitcher who is still shaking off some rust.
8. Joe Ryan – Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan is finally putting together the breakout season that many fans and analysts have hoped for from the right-hander for years. His fastball velocity has remained higher than what we saw earlier in his career, the command is utterly elite, and the strikeouts are way up. His one big issue remains the home run ball, allowing damage contact at a very high rate, but it doesn’t erase a 2.93 ERA and 29.7% K%. Minnesota has gotten off to a less-than-desirable start, but Joe Ryan is one of the few players keeping them from spiraling.
7. Tyler Mahle – Texas Rangers
Tyler Mahle‘s 1.48 ERA is the second-best in the American League, so why does he find himself in the bottom half of this list? Well, as mentioned in the intro, underlying data did factor into my rankings a little bit, and Mahle is likely due for some serious regression with a 19.3% K% and 3.80 xERA. I still think that we’re looking at a good pitcher who is capable of getting better in the swing-and-miss department because the fastball shape and command are excellent. His secondary pitches haven’t been dominant, but if he can get a better feel for those pitches, he could remain excellent.
6. Nathan Eovaldi – Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi, after all of these years and injuries, has remained a reliable frontline starter, and the Texas Rangers are overjoyed to have him back. Their offense has been a disaster, but Eovaldi has been anything but that, delivering big outings as he’s walking just 2.2% of batters faced and averages over 6 IP a start. He’s going to attack the zone with all four of his pitches to get swings-and-misses, and while he does allow a lot of damage contact, I believe it’ll balance itself out and we’ll see the 35-year-old right in the middle of the AL Cy Young race all season.
5. Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers
While he hasn’t been the best pitcher in baseball this season based on ERA, Tarik Skubal has solidified himself as a truly special pitcher in this league. I am supremely confident in saying that by season’s end, I’ll be ranking Skubal at the top of this list or near the top, as he runs elite strikeout rates, doesn’t walk anyone, and rarely surrenders home runs. His fastball has more zip to it this year, resulting in more whiffs and fewer barrels, and Detroit has an ace that can rip apart any lineup on any given day, which will help them in their postseason run this October.
4. Garrett Crochet – Boston Red Sox
Garrett Crochet has been the Red Sox ironhorse this season, pitching deep into games and putting them in a position to win baseball games. He’s dropped his arm angle a bit in the pursuit of better health, but it could also benefit an arsenal that relies on a riding fastball and sharp cutter primarily. His sinker has seen some more usage as well, but the command has lagged behind this season. The left-hander has continued to be an elite frontline starter after a breakout season last year, and Boston has immediately fallen in love with their new star pitcher.
3. Kris Bubic – Kansas City Royals
How many people are aware of the fact that Kris Bubic is averaging 6 IP per start with a 1.68 ERA? He has been one of the best pitchers in the game while having excellent underlying data, limiting damage contact, and having a solid 24.2% strikeout rate. The fastball plays at the top of the zone due to his funky release height, his sweeper has good two-plane movement, and his new kick-change is nasty. Bubic can mix in some firmer sliders with tight spin and sinkers to jam lefties, giving him a complete five-pitch mix that can shut down any offense.
2. Hunter Brown – Houston Astros
Hunter Brown has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season with a 1.67 ERA and 1.83 FIP, as he has been a strikeout machine who doesn’t walk many batters. He’s pitching deep into games as well, which is an encouraging sign for a young pitcher breaking out in front of our very eyes. The signs of a breakout were there in the second half of last season as he finished the year with a 3.49 ERA across 170 innings, but he’s reached new heights this year. Brown currently leads all MLB starters in fWAR (1.8), and Houston might have found another ace in their farm system.
1. Max Fried – New York Yankees
The Yankees gave Max Fried the most money ever handed out to a left-handed pitcher in MLB history, and he has lived up to the pricetag thus far. His 1.05 ERA and 51.2 IP are the best in MLB right now, and he’s anchoring a rotation that dearly misses 2023 AL Cy Young Winner Gerrit Cole. Brian Cashman made a hefty investment in the rotation, and it’s paying off big-time right now with their slew of pitching injuries. He is a groundball machine that doesn’t walk batters but can miss bats in a big spot, and the Yankees have unlocked the best version of Max Fried we’ve ever seen.