New York Mets fans would tell you that Noah Syndergaard had a down-ish season by his lofty standards. It wasn’t bad at all: lots of hurlers would love to finish with a 4.28 ERA in 197.2 innings, and they would surely want to register a 4.4 fWAR.
However, as his ERA indicates, Thor didn’t quite dominate the way he can. Reports that he didn’t like the starting catcher’s game-calling skills and seemingly endless trade rumors surel didn’t help, either. It was a weird season, to say the least.
He is more than capable of cutting a full run of that ERA in 2020, though.
If we look closer, that earned run average came with a much more palatable 3.60 FIP, a fair indication of his talent given that he often had to suffer the Mets‘ lousy infield defense in 2019.
The “juiced” ball may have had a role in a couple more home runs allowed here or there. His 1.09 HR/9 was his highest mark since 2015, when he conceded 1.14. His 24 round-trippers allowed were a career-high. While we aren’t sure about which ball will be used in 2020, chances are that it won’t be the same as this year.
A great K:BB ratio is a good omen for Thor and the Mets
The odds are high that Syndergaard will finish with much better numbers in 2020. One of the best indicators of future success is the K:BB ratio, and Thor had a shiny 202:50. He had 4.04 strikeouts for each base on balls, an elite mark.
According to Fangraphs’ pitch value chart, Syndergaard had four different offerings with positive ratings: his fastball (1.5) slider (1.7) curveball (2.5) and changeup (6.8.) He also kept missing bats: while he didn’t quite post his 2016’s career high of 14.2 SwStrk%, he had 12.5. The Mets will surely enjoy a better statistical season from Thor.
Syndergaard’s average fastball velocity in 2019 was 98.1 mph, the same number as last year. His profile is full of promising indicators and stats.
A promising second half
In fact, his second half (3.82 ERA, .291 wOBA, 3.15 FIP, 5.05 K/BB) was much better than his first (4.68 ERA, .311 wOBA, 4.26 FIP, 3.37 K/BB.) That’s another good sign right there.
In a stint between July 13 and August 22 covering eight starts, he showed just how dominant he can be. He had 9.11 K/9 and a minuscule 1.99 BB/9. He was in full command of his arsenal, accumulating a 1.82 ERA with a 2.11 FIP. More than half of his batted balls were on the ground over that span (54.5 GB%.) and he only allowed one home run in 54.1 frames.
While he is not expected to be the New York Mets‘ ace, the team needs him to be better. And he has the potential to post ace-like numbers.