The 2019 season was a fun one for two New York Mets’ players: Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso. The former showed that his 2018 breakthrough was no fluke. The later rose up to the big stage with a bang: a league-leading 53 home runs and the NL Rookie of the Year award.
In a team with Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith, Alonso was the top offensive threat. He and McNeil led the Mets with a 143 wRC+.
The question is: what will Alonso do for an encore? His sophomore season will be a crucial one for the Mets. They need him to replicate his production if they want to secure a ticket to the postseason.
The Mets’ offensive stalwart
Is Alonso capable of repeating his amazing rookie season? It is fair to say that he took advantage of the “juiced†ball, but so did the rest of the league. If there is any change in the ball for 2020, it will be reflected in his HR/FB rate and, indirectly, his home run total.
Considering that he put up a 143 wRC+ and a .260/.358/.583 line, he set a high bar. However, it wouldn’t be impossible for him to match or improve those numbers. He had a 184 wRC+ in 2016 as a first-year pro in A- ball, a 157 mark in 2017 in Class A+, and a fantastic 180 in Double-A in 2018. He has it in him. It is unlikely that he changes his approach, though.
It would be difficult to show more power than hitting 53 home runs, and because of that, any improvements he makes offensively would be on his batting average. He already has a healthy 10.4 BB%. From 2016 to 2018, he hit .321, .286, .311 and .314 in four different stops.
A 2018 67-game stint in Triple-A resulted in a slash line of .260/.355/.585, almost a copy of his .260/.358/.583 performance with the Mets. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that he has morphed into a .260 player with a +.320 ISO, a change from the .300 hitter with a ~.260 ISO he was until reaching Triple-A. And that is more than fine!
If he approaches .300, it would likely be because he sacrificed power in the process. The Mets would surely prefer the player he is today to the one he was in 2016-2018.
With a similar performance and a modest improvement on defense, Pete Alonso can surpass the 5 WAR mark in 2020. What will he do for an encore? The New York Mets can’t wait to find out.