A few days ago, we reviewed the New York Mets’ best case scenario. That means examining which things needed to go right for the team to advance and be a legit contender.
Now we flip to the other side. Which things may go wrong and derail the Mets’ season? These realistic scenarios may complicate the team’s outlook.
Robinson Cano’s troublesome left leg’s muscles act up
Robinson Cano had a disappointing 2019, with a .256/.307/.428 line and a below-average 93 wRC+. He went three times to the injured list, two with left quad issues and another one with a left hamstring strain. If his left leg’s muscles keep acting up, he won’t have the lower body strength needed to lift the ball and hit it with authority.
Pete Alonso suffers the “sophomore slumpâ€
Teams discover a hole in Pete Alonso’s swing and exploit his high-strikeout tendencies (26.4 K% in 2019.) He fails to hit 35 home runs and his average plummets all the way to .235-.240. If that’s the case, the lineup will lose punch and the Mets‘ offense may struggle to score runs.
Jeff McNeil is “Statcast’dâ€
Jeff McNeil is a terrific hitter, but what if luck abandons him in 2020? He still has enough skill to be a dangerous in that case, but given that there is a disparity between his wOBA and xwOBA (.379 to .347) and his hard-hit rate is only in the 37th percentile, his offensive production figures to drop. He is also below-average in average exit velocity (38th percentile.)
Noah Syndergaard’s ERA is still significantly higher than his FIP
We know that Noah Syndergaard is better than the 4.28 ERA he had in 2019. Several factors (luck, infield defense, catcher framing and others) contribute to that number being substantially higher than his 3.60 FIP. However, the Mets need it to be the other way around! If Thor has a similar ERA or higher, then he won’t deliver on his number-2 starter promise and the rotation may lose the stability needed to fend off the other foes in the National League.
Bullpen woes
To be successful in 2020, the Mets are banking on returns to form from Edwin Diaz (5.59 ERA) and Jeurys Familia (5.70 ERA.) What if they implode again? What if they have similarly troubling seasons? The Mets blew lots of games last year and that could happen again this season if those two don’t rebound.
Dellin Betances’ recovery takes longer than expected
The New York Mets signed Dellin Betances on Christmas knowing that he has to rehab his partially torn Achilles tendon. Those are tricky injuries, and while he is expected to be ready for Spring Training, an aggravation will throw that timetable out the window. He needs to be healthy to produce.
The infield defense doesn’t improve
If the Mets play J.D. Davis at third and Amed Rosario doesn’t take a step forward (UZR favored him but he had a terrible -16 DRS at short) guys like Marcus Stroman and Thor will suffer a lot of headaches.
Disappointing seasons from Porcello and Wacha
Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello signed with the New York Mets and will compete for a starting spot. The former had a 4.76 ERA and the latter a 5.52 mark. If those are his numbers with the Mets, then there will be disappointment.
Thankfully, the chances are slim that all these scenarios actually present themselves. Sure, a few may materialize, but it seems far-fetched that every one of them will affect the Mets.