With Zack Wheeler likely to leave the New York Mets need to zero in on a quality replacement. Julio Teheran would be an excellent choice.
There is no one-for-one replacement for Zack Wheeler on the market, at least that the Mets can afford. They aren’t likely to dole out big money to keep Wheeler or replace him with Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg.
That means the Mets are going to look at more realistic options if any at all. GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already stated that he is happy with the depth on the team and that Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman could move back to the starting rotation.
If the Mets truly believe that to be true the team is in deep trouble. If it’s posturing that means the team is likely looking at lower end pitchers. Someone who will fit the fifth starter role on the team. Julio Teheran looks like the best guy to fill that role.
Teheran has been with the Braves his entire career to this point. He’s always been a solid pitcher who outperforms his peripherals. That will likely drive his price down.
Over the last two seasons, Teheran has had a 3.88 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 1.247 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9. Those aren’t the most impressive numbers. However, Teheran brings two things to the table that the Mets need.
First, he is an innings eater. Teheran has pitched at least 174 innings in each of the last seven seasons. He has always been healthy and able to eat innings. For a Mets team that has been decimated by injuries for years having a durable fifth starter is a necessity.
Second, Teheran has a wealth of experience pitching in the NL East. Teheran has a career 2.98 ERA against the Mets, 3.97 ERA against the Phillies, 3.43 ERA against the Marlins, and a 3.85 ERA against the Nationals.
That success in the NL East is proof that Teheran can succeed against the Mets’ top competition. That’s something Teheran has that no other potential fifth starter on the market has.
Teheran is far from perfect. His peripherals are bad and show that Teheran’s number should decline. However, they’ve said that his entire career and they just haven’t.
It’s possible that Teheran has just found a way to succeed despite poor analytics. Whatever the case may be he is an ideal candidate for the Mets fifth starter role.
He will be cheap, he’s young, and he’s succeeded both against the NL East and as an innings eater. That’s enough to say that if the Mets do plan on replacing Wheeler with a fifth starter type Teheran should be the guy.