The New York Mets’ rotation takes nearly all of the headlines. After all, it is a very good unit, maybe a top-5 group in the MLB. Jacob deGrom is a bona fide ace, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman are also top-of-the-rotation arms, Steven Matz, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello are all capable number-4s.
However, the bullpen does not get enough credit. Granted, there were more than a few meltdowns in 2019. That’s part of the reason people associate the Mets’ relief corps with unreliability. However, think again.
The Mets are full of high-profile names in their bullpen. The much-maligned Edwin Diaz was baseball’s best reliever as recently as 2018, and Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach are also not-so-far removed from dominant seasons.
The Mets have undeniable talent in their bullpen
The unit also has the versatile Robert Gsellman and one of the best relievers in baseball in Seth Lugo. The Mets’ bullpen has serious bounceback potential for 2020. In fact, consider this:
Best bullpens in baseball, 2020 projected WAR
1. Rays — 5.3
2. Yankees — 5.2
3. Padres — 4.9
4. Astros — 4.6
5. Brewers — 4.6
6. Mets — 4.4
7. Braves — 4.3
8. Dodgers — 3.7
9. Twins — 3.6
10. Athletics — 3.6— Devan Fink (@DevanFink) December 18, 2019
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As you can see, the New York Mets’ bullpen, as a unit, is projected to be just outside the top five in all baseball when it comes to WAR. That’s according Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projection.
We will use both Steamer and ZiPS’ projections to determine FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) fo 2020. With that said, the Mets bullpen could look like this:
- Michael Wacha (Steamer 4.42, ZiPS 4.45)
- Seth Lugo (Steamer 3.46, ZiPS 3.11)
- Robert Gsellman (Steamer 4.20, ZiPS 3.91)
- Brad Brach (Steamer 4.18, ZiPS 3.63)
- Jeurys Familia (Steamer 4.01, ZiPS 3.56)
- Edwin Diaz (Steamer 2.79, ZiPS 2.77)
- Justin Wilson (Steamer 3.81, ZiPS 3.59)
- One or two additional arms from free agency and/or within the organization
Now, if the Mets want to swing the balance of power in their favor, they need to consider Dellin Betances. The former Yankee, still a free agent, should be ready for the start of the season. He accrued 11.2 WAR from 2014 to 2018. Signing him would shoot the unit to undisputed top-five status in a hurry.
However, even if the Mets make no further additions, they should feel pretty confident about their bullpen. The mentioned names plus one or two additional hurlers from inside the organization that earn a spot in Spring Training are more than enough to protect the team’s leads more often than not.
We have discussed here why Edwin Diaz should have a bounceback season, and Familia might, as well. With Lugo, a quality long man in Wacha (or Matz?) and the other names on the list, the bullpen looks strong.