Top 10 MLB Rankings: MVP Candidates in the National League

Mookie Betts is here because if he hadn’t been hit in the hand, he would have potentially won the award, it’s definitely not because he’s also top 10 in bWAR and almost in the top 10 in fWAR- oh wait he is! He has a 156 wRC+ and won’t win the award, but Betts will most certainly finish in the top 10 thanks to how good his numbers will be despite the fractured hand. One of the best players of our generation, Betts is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who would have had a potentially historic campaign if not for an accident.

Marcell Ozuna is not going to have a realistic shot at winning MVP, nor should he; the argument for a DH is already hard, and there’s a superior DH to him in his own league with Shohei Ohtani. He’s having a great season, but by not stepping foot on the field and not bringing any value to the table with his legs, there’s just no way he’s going to walk away with the award. He’ll get some down-ballot votes and perhaps could guide a lost Atlanta team to the World Series, but he’s more of a “hey, congrats on the year” guy than a serious candidate.

Jurickson Profar is on this list, and not in a joking way or simply to acknowledge his season, but because he seriously deserves to be on this list. He’s fourth among qualified hitters in the NL in wRC+ (151) and 8th in fWAR, and you could reasonably argue he should be above a name or two on this list. He likely doesn’t have the numbers to finish in the top five, but it’s incredible that his name is even on this list in the first place, considering he was last in fWAR last year. I also expect to see his teammate Jackson Merrill on this list as soon as next season.

A nasty slide has potentially ended any chance Bryce Harper may have had at winning the NL MVP, as he saw his wRC+ dip from 164 to 147 over the last month or so. The Phillies will need him to get ripping hot as they’re in a nasty funk right now, and if he can pull them out of it and get them to the top seed in the NL, perhaps he will find himself back on top of some MVP ballots. He has played a strong first base to his credit as well, so it’s not too farfetched for a late-season surge.

Who would have thought that Matt Chapman would be top three in bWAR (5.6) and top 5 in fWAR (4.0)? While the discrepancy in WAR has me a little apprehensive about ranking him higher on this list, his 122 wRC+ and overall value are hard to ignore. He’ll end his season with around 25 home runs most likely while being one of the top defensive players in the game, and people forget that he’s a pretty strong baserunner as well. An all-around contributor, Chapman is one of the most underrated players in baseball.

My pick for the NL Cy Young Award, Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers of his generation and should finally be recognized with an honor that has long alluded him. We’ll see if he can stay healthy down the stretch, but the hard-throwing southpaw has an NL-leading 4.8 fWAR and 2.61 ERA across 22 starts. He won’t win the MVP award, but as the best pitcher in the league, I think he deserves to be in the top five for the voting, especially given how much weaker the candidates after the top four are.

The always underappreciated Francisco Lindor has once again been one of the top shortstops in baseball, tied with Ketel Marte in fWAR (5.3) and 5th in bWAR (4.8). His offensive success is hard to deny, with a 127 wRC+ that’s just one point behind Elly De La Cruz. Defensively, he’s a Gold Glove candidate, and while he’s behind the three candidates ahead of him by a noticeable margin, he’s still a good candidate to potentially go on a tear and get more consideration for the award.

Elly De La Cruz has 59 steals and 21 home runs, one of the best power-speed threats in the game, but the issue with his MVP case stems from defensive value. According to Outs Above Average, Elly De La Cruz is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, but according to Defensive Runs Saved, he’s one of the worst. I think he’s a good defender, and firmly in the MVP conversation, but he does lag behind the two candidates in front of him offensively. I doubt he will finish his career without some hardware if he keeps it up at this pace.

Ketel Marte is third in fWAR and second in bWAR, having an incredible season both offensively and defensively. With a 152 wRC+ and +10 Defensive Runs Saved at second base, I think he would be in the lead if not for a recent ankle injury that’s limited him. If it’s a serious injury, it could hurt his chances of finishing in the top two for this award, which would be a shame given how fun the Diamondbacks have been this season. 

The National League leader in fWAR and bWAR, Shohei Ohtani, could become the first DH to ever win the MVP award. He has 33 steals and 30 home runs and could have the first 40-40 season of his career. Offensively, he’s been the best hitter in the NL with a 174 wRC+, and he could be one of the few players to claim the MVP award in both leagues. He’s a generational player, and despite not pitching this season, he’s the best player in the NL.