It’s been another incredible start to the NBA season as there have been plenty of positive and negative surprises as new faces have taken centerstage. From the Cleveland Cavaliers and their historic win streak to open the season to the upstart Houston Rockets, there are plenty of exciting teams who could contend for a title in 2024-2025. Without trying to overreact to the first few weeks of the season, we’re going to rank the top 10 teams in the NBA based on pre-season expectations while baking in their performance from this season as well.
Balancing pre-season beliefs with in-season data can be difficult, but let’s see which teams will take the biggest leaps and the hardest falls.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 8-8, but their excellent net rating and circumstances entering the season leave them in the top 10 despite a slew of excellent choices in the Western Conference. It’s a team that’s got two brand-new pieces in Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo who are filling the void for Karl-Anthony Towns in a deal that only came to fruition with just a few weeks until Opening Night.
Anthony Edwards went from a solid shooter to one of the best perimeter scorers in the league early on, sending a barrage of threes his opponent’s way with elite efficiency. Their defense has regressed from elite to just good which is shocking to some considering that KAT was considered a liability on that end of the floor, but his size allowed Minnesota to at least deter smaller forwards from attacking the rim.
While they haven’t gotten it going just yet, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Timberwolves will soon, and they’ll have to in this loaded Western Conference.
9. Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are allowing fewer points per game than any other team in the NBA (102.1) and stand at 12-7, the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. They’ve done this mostly without Paolo Banchero, as Franz Wagner looks like the star player with excellent scoring volume and efficiency. Orlando won’t overwhelm you with their offense, but they’ll suffocate your best scorers and force you to play at their pace, a dangerous proposition for teams who don’t possess elite-level scoring depth.
Coming off of a close first-round series loss at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Magic are eager to not only climb back into the top of the conference but win their first playoff series since 2010 when they had Dwight Howard. They’ll need to get Banchero back in the mix if they want to be a title contender and put up enough points to hang with the top teams in the league, but they certainly have the foundation in place to do such a thing.
A young team on the rise, the Orlando Magic have to prove that they’re more than just a fun team and can win a title with this group.
8. Houston Rockets
Similar to the Orlando Magic, the Houston Rockets are a defensive-minded team that struggles to generate efficient offense. Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet have been far better defensively than they’ve been in recent years while finding ways to generate offense even while they’ve struggled to do so efficiently. Amen Thompson is blossoming into a defensive star alongside Tari Eason and Dillion Brooks has remained the ever-pesky disruptor on that side of the ball as well.
One of the biggest disappointments for the Rockets this season has come in Jalen Green, who has been remarkably inefficient and doesn’t mesh into their defensive identity very well. They’re a weird team that’s found a way to win games sustainably, but key pieces to their roster have to take a step forward on offense if they want to reach the status of a true contender in the Western Conference. Still, it’s an improvement over last year’s squad, and the Rockets should be pumped about what could be on the horizon for them.
7. Golden State Warriors
With the second-best record in the Western Conference and an elite Net Rating, the Warriors make the jump from not being a top-10 team to firmly joining the ranks. Stephen Curry has continued to be one of the best players of our generation even if he isn’t playing as many minutes early on. Draymond Green is still an elite defender who serves a critical role in their lineup and Andrew Wiggins has looked a lot more like he did during Golden State’s 2022 title run.
Buddy Hield has been a revelation for the Warriors, averaging 15.9 points per game on elite three-point shooting, as they’re fifth in the league in scoring per game while boasting a top-10 defense in the NBA. This group could revive a dynasty that looked to be on its way out, and while it’s unclear if this window could remain open next year, the Warriors might have another crack at adding to their run of dominance over the last decade.
A dynastic group in its waning years, Stephen Curry is looking to make his legacy even greater and bring another title to the Bay Area.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
My pre-season faith in the Memphis Grizzlies has been rewarded early on as they’ve played to an 11-7 record with elite underlying numbers. They’re an elite offensive unit with a defensive identity that’s starting to form, as Ja Morant has been just as good as we remember in his return from suspension and injury. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been arguably the best player on the team thanks to his defensive wizardry and scoring prowess, but the development of their young role players has allowed them to be a top-flight team.
Scotty Pippen Jr. is a nice sparkplug for the offense who can play strong defense and looks to slowly develop into a key part of a contender’s roster. This team is finally healthy and can put together dominant performances on a nightly basis, but just like their previous iterations who made the postseason, they have a lot to prove. First, they have to prove that they can avoid the off-court distractions that have plagued them for years, with suspensions and ill-timed trash talk coming back to bite them multiple times before.
This is a good team that looks to have a greater focus on winning the NBA Finals than ever before, but they’ll have to continue proving themselves to the rest of the NBA.
5. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have been good but not great this season in terms of win-loss record, but their strong play despite Luka Doncic being far worse on both sides of the ball early on is why they’re still high on this list. The depth on the roster has improved and they’re able to win games without heavily relying on their star guard, allowing them to both have a dominant offense and competitive defense as a result. Even though their record is unimpressive, there are plenty of underlying metrics that back up my claims about their improved depth.
They have a +5.7 Point Differential and are sixth in EPM, a predictive version of Box Plus-Minus, and once Luka Doncic starts clicking this team could be dangerous. They have elite-level star talent thanks to Kyrie Irving being their second option and they have enough perimeter scoring and interior defense to go out and hang with the best teams in the league. Dallas hasn’t looked as sharp as many hoped they could, but they are definitely still the championship-caliber team they were a year ago.
4. New York Knicks
The New York Knicks got off to a rocky start but have won four of their last five and look every bit as good as they did last year if not even better. As the team that received Karl-Anthony Towns and parted ways with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, an adjustment period was expected, but they’ve started to fire on all cylinders here in November. Jalen Brunson has found a new gear as a playmaker while remaining an efficient scorer, Karl-Anthony Towns look better than ever before, and their depth pieces are doing their part and then some.
OG Anunoby is averaging 19.1 points per game after dropping a career-high 40 points against the Denver Nuggets, Josh Hart has been an ultra-efficient triple-double machine, and even Cam Payne has shown up and provided a spark off the bench. Mikal Bridges has disappointed early on but if he can get back online with his three-point shot, the Knicks could give the top teams in the league a run for their money. They are third in EPM and have only gotten better as the season has gone on, leading one of the league’s best offenses.
Each of the last two seasons ended in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals for the Knicks, and now its time for them to try and take the leap from a contender to top dogs.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
With Donovan Mitchell the Cleveland Cavaliers have always been good, but they’ve also been clearly a step behind the top teams in the East. New York trounced them in five games two years ago and Boston disposed of them this past postseason, with Philadelphia, Miami, and Milwaukee being perceived as a class above as well. It feels like this leap is an amalgamation of pressure, expectation, and failure, as this group is both dominant on the offensive side and also sharp defensively.
Granted, many will point to their strength of schedule to write off their elite 17-1 record, but bashing the worst teams in the league is a sign of an elite squad as well. They lead the NBA in point differential and are fourth in EPM, they’ve cemented themselves as a title contender early on who is capable of going toe-to-toe with anybody right now. Donovan Mitchell looks determined to bring a title to Cleveland, with Darius Garland having a rebound year and Evan Mobley taking the leap many believed he could for years.
A team ripping through the NBA like a tornado right now, the Cleveland Cavaliers are looking to do more than just win a playoff series.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder were expected to be the best team in the Western Conference entering the season and they’ve lived up to that for the most part. Despite injuries to Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren early into the season, they’ve stayed afloat with creative lineups and the excellent play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has become one of the five best players in the sport without a doubt. Jalen Williams has taken another leap in year 3 and looks primed to make the All-Star team, and Hartenstein has been sharp in his OKC debut.
So far they’re second in point differential and EPM as a team, and they look like the squad best positioned to take down the reigning NBA Champions in Boston. Oklahoma City has a great blend of star talent and depth, but they can also kill you in so many ways. Their suffocating defense thanks to the efforts of their big men and new addition Alex Caruso can make life hell for an opposing team’s best player while their dynamic offense and lethal array of scoring options will make even the best defenders look lost.
It’s a team that has few weaknesses to exploit, and they’ve delivered on the pre-season hype up to this point.
1. Boston Celtics
Let’s not overthink this, the Boston Celtics are still the clearcut best team in the NBA at this point in time as they’ve remained utterly dominant. Jayson Tatum has been even better than last year and should remain in MVP conversations after winning his first NBA title, the remaining four starters are still excellent in their roles, and they’ve gotten some surprise performances from bench pieces on the roster. Payton Pritchard might win Sixth Man of the Year as he’s averaging 14.8 points per game with elite three-point volume and efficiency.
This team is by far the best in EPM (+11.0) while having the third-best point differential in the league, and they are the only team to have beaten the Cleveland Cavaliers this season as well. This team is quite simply transcendent, they are built perfectly to win in the modern game and exemplify everything you want for a contender. Excellent star talent with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, elite depth on the roster, and some of the best synergy we’ve seen in a while.
This roster fits together like a puzzle and its full of top players who would make anyone significantly better; Boston might just be a city of champions once again this summer.