With the MLB regular season coming to a close in just a few short weeks, there have been some incredibly close playoff races that have begun to take shape. Whether it’s the heated NL Wild Card picture or the incredible AL East battle, teams are scrambling for even the slightest advantages in seeding, and it’ll all come down to these final few weeks of the season. It won’t be easy to figure out where these teams should lie with the margins in roster quality being razor-thin between these playoff-bound squads, but here’s our top 10 after the first third of this wild month of September.
10) New York Mets (79-65)
Francisco Lindor has a strong case to win the NL MVP even with the insane season Shohei Ohtani has been having, and this team has hit its stride on both sides of the ball. Their offense has breakout star Mark Vientos to pair with veterans like Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and J.D. Martinez while the likes of Jose Iglesias have provided an unexpected spark as role players. The bullpen has been better with Danny Young and Reed Garrett tossing some big innings to get the ball to their star closer Edwin Diaz. If the Mets can get Kodai Senga back during the season, and keep getting gems from Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, then Oh My God.
9) Cleveland Guardians (82-62)
The Guardians have been a weird team this year, running away with the AL Central at first before they found themselves in a tie with the Royals during the summer. They haven’t run away with the division but they have a comfortable lead given the lack of games left of the schedule, and that’s going to help them a lot as they could get a first-round bye and avoid the Wild Card round. The pitching staff is better, as their already brilliant bullpen is now paired with an acceptable starting staff who has shown to be more than capable of keeping them in games.
8) Arizona Diamondbacks (80-64)
A tough skid has sent the Arizona Diamondbacks into a bit of a spiral, as the once gaudy lead in the NL Wild Card has withered into a razor-thin margin. They’re up just two games in the loss column for their playoff spot, whereas before it felt like a forgone conclusion that they would make the postseason. With New York having the tiebreaker over them in head-to-head matchups, it could come down to a technicality that knocks Arizona out of the playoffs, but perhaps this cold spell is what they need to regroup and get back on track. This offense is dominant and the pitching staff has upside; let’s see if the reigning NL Champions can get it done.
7) San Diego Padres (81-64)
One of the biggest questions I have with the San Diego Padres is whether they can just stay hot in the postseason or not. They’re so talented and well-rounded, having the offense and pitching staff to shut down any of the top contenders across the sport. Their bullpen is stacked, their outfield is elite, and the rotation is finding it’s identity with Michael King as their workhorse and newcomer Martin Perez as a nice surprise. This team is remarkable, but at the end of the day, they hold a narrow lead in the Wild Card race and need to play great baseball down the stretch to ensure that we’ll see this energetic group in October.
6) Milwaukee Brewers (81-61)
The Brewers can hit and they have an excellent bullpen, but similar to the Guardians the concern is whether their rotation is strong enough. They have the best chance to make the postseason out of any team in baseball thanks to their hilariously large lead over the NL Central and unquestioned success all season, but how will it play in the postseason? They don’t have a large advantage over the Wild Card teams, but in a short series, they can run out Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers in the first two games to cover up their weakness. Jackson Chourio might just be the star they need to take over a series and bring a championship to Milwaukee.
5) Houston Astros (77-66)
Houston put their rancid start behind them, taking a firm hold of the AL West and looking like one of the best teams in baseball again. Their rotation has Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown at the top with Ronel Blanco and Yusei Kikcuhi as excellent starters to back them up. Justin Verlander just cannot take the ball in the postseason for them, and they’ll need to make sure their bullpen doesn’t get exposed either. With Kyle Tucker back they have one of the more circular offenses in the AL, but this team has question marks and may have to play a first-round Wild Card series where all bets are off.
4) Baltimore Orioles (82-63)
It’s been a weird season for the Baltimore Orioles, who looked poised to dominate the American League this season after acquiring Corbin Burnes. He’s slumped a bit but has overall been exactly what they needed at the top of their rotation, and pitchers like Albert Suarez and Zach Eflin are right there to back him up and provide some big-time starts. Grayson Rodriguez should be coming back this season, but the loss of Kyle Bradish has killed their pitching depth. That bullpen is a massive question mark, but these boys can mash and they have all the talent to win the AL East and take the top spot in the league. Do not count them out.
3) New York Yankees (83-61)
The New York Yankees have been just as weird as the Baltimore Orioles, playing at an incredible clip to open the season before hitting an ugly slide. They haven’t broken out of it, but they have made some key roster changes that could help them in that process. Jasson Dominguez is up and will join the likes of Jazz Chisholm as some of their new power/speed threats while the return of Clarke Schmidt and Ian Hamilton should bolster the pitching staff.
It’s a strong roster, but can they stay consistent and healthy into the postseason?
2) Philadelphia Phillies (86-58)
The Philadelphia Phillies have quelled any attempts from the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets to make the NL East a race, and while they’ll play their hated New York rivals a ton down the stretch, they can do so with a cushion. It’s just a matter of taking care of business, if they play good (not great) ball they’ll get a first-round bye and reset their rotation for what should be a deep postseason run.
They’ve started to pull away from the pack in the NL, and they’re reminding opponents that this is the same Phillies team who mowed down their opponents with ease to start the season.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers (86-58)
Shohei Ohtani might be having the greatest season by a pure DH in the history of the sport, Mookie Betts is still incredible, and Freddie Freeman is hitting his stride. They have an elite trio of bats that has enough of a supporting cast to win games, and their two big pitching acquisitions in Michael Kopech and Jack Flaherty have been unbelievable since their acquisition as well. If Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto can fire on all cylinders upon their activations from the IL, this team has the best chance of winning the National League.
It’s not a large advantage, they shouldn’t be seen as clearly better than Philly, but this team was assembled for the goal of dominating in October.